Business Plan - Revision history

Eric: Added some more information

2020-05-19T03:17:03Z

Added some more information

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 =For OSE Enerprise Development=
 For 2020 development, this means Kit Production Business Plan. Includes Production Ergonomics and Cost
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 The highest risk is people: will they get along? Will they be willing to learn?

Marcin at 00:10, 19 May 2020

2020-05-19T00:10:39Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:10, 19 May 2020
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	=Executive Summary=		=For OSE Enerprise Development=

			For 2020 development, this means Kit Production Business Plan. Includes Production Ergonomics and Cost

			=Executive Summary - Sample Business Plan from 2012=
	#'''The problem and your solution'''. Equipment for building the infrastructures of communities is expensive, is designed for obsolescence, and relies on external inputs of energy and resources. We are bulding open source, low-cost, lifetime design equipment that is easy to maintain and modify using local resources. We are building a Lego set for real infrastructures - to cater to the needs of [[Cultural Disruptives]].		#'''The problem and your solution'''. Equipment for building the infrastructures of communities is expensive, is designed for obsolescence, and relies on external inputs of energy and resources. We are bulding open source, low-cost, lifetime design equipment that is easy to maintain and modify using local resources. We are building a Lego set for real infrastructures - to cater to the needs of [[Cultural Disruptives]].
	#'''Market size and growth opportunity'''. The population size of customers is about 0.1% of the developed world population - the [[Cultural Disruptives]] - approximately 1M people in the developed world. This is a small subset of the 2.5% population of Innovators in Roger's graph of [[Innovation Diffusion]]. The product market values for the 50 GVCS technologies is significantly more than $1T per year, as seen in [[GVCS Market Size]] for established industries. Thus, the market value of production from product sales only is $1B/year, and this is not to mention derivative value generated from products related to the GVCS (such as consrtruction services, agricultural products, energy and fuel production, etc.)		#'''Market size and growth opportunity'''. The population size of customers is about 0.1% of the developed world population - the [[Cultural Disruptives]] - approximately 1M people in the developed world. This is a small subset of the 2.5% population of Innovators in Roger's graph of [[Innovation Diffusion]]. The product market values for the 50 GVCS technologies is significantly more than $1T per year, as seen in [[GVCS Market Size]] for established industries. Thus, the market value of production from product sales only is $1B/year, and this is not to mention derivative value generated from products related to the GVCS (such as consrtruction services, agricultural products, energy and fuel production, etc.)

Marcin: /* Body */

2012-09-04T16:18:53Z

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	#Proving the social sustainability of a group of people who work and live together.		#Proving the social sustainability of a group of people who work and live together.
	#Peoples' unwillingness to learn radically new things.		#Peoples' unwillingness to learn radically new things.
	#~~Focus in peoples' minds and structural considerations~~ to enable a 2 hour work day. That requires significant learning on the part of the community members.		#Ability of people to cross train effectively to enable a 2 hour work day. That requires significant learning on the part of the community members.

	The highest risk is people: will they get along? Will they be willing to learn?		The highest risk is people: will they get along? Will they be willing to learn?

Marcin: /* Body */

2012-09-04T16:17:59Z

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	We face a number of significant challenges.		We face a number of significant challenges.
	#Ability to recruit talent for our synergistic team if we pay only a $2k/month stipend and cover living expenses.		#Finding the one in a million (literally) Cultural Disruptives entrepreneurs for a total of 3000.
	#~~The foundation~~ funding ~~plan~~ is ~~hit-or-miss~~, and it may slow our curriculum development/replication strategy by 2 years.		#Ability to recruit talent for our synergistic team if we pay only a $2-4k/month stipend and cover living expenses.
	#Ability to cross-train people effectively.		#Foundation funding is not reliable, and it may slow our curriculum development/replication strategy by 2 years.
			#Ability to cross-train people effectively over the long term - what are the limits to human learning.
	#Synergizing the team with a large number of moving parts by swarming on problems when necessary.		#Synergizing the team with a large number of moving parts by swarming on problems when necessary.
	#Huge risk lies in the assumption that we will have customers for the machines.		#Huge risk lies in the assumption that we will have customers for the machines.
	#~~There is a significant amount of infrastructure~~ upgrades ~~that~~ still need ~~to be done~~.		#Infrastructure upgrades are still in need of completion.
	#Recruiting the ~~24 person~~ team ~~in time~~ will be a ~~significant question~~.		#Recruiting and stabilizing the core team will be a challenge.
	#Proving the social sustainability of a group of people who work and live together.		#Proving the social sustainability of a group of people who work and live together.
	#Peoples' unwillingness to learn radically new things.		#Peoples' unwillingness to learn radically new things.

Marcin: /* Body */

2012-09-04T16:14:51Z

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	'''Revenue model'''		'''Revenue model'''

	We are a ~~nonprofit~~ organization where funding goes back into the operation to ceate ~~5000~~ OSE ~~Campuses~~ by ~~2024~~. The basic model is [[Collaborative Production]], expansion of the [[True Fans]] program to $20k/month earnings, and foundation funding to cover education/training/replication development. Product development itself will be bootstrap funded completely through product sales regardless of foundation funding level fluctuations. We are not accepting traditional investors as a nonprofit organization, as we have already got enough infrastructure in place to carry on effective production. Speaking fees are also expected to bring in $5k/month starting in 2014.		We are a hybrid organization where funding goes back into the operation to ceate 3000 [[OSE Campus]]es by 2028. The basic model is [[Collaborative Production]], expansion of the [[True Fans]] program to $20k/month earnings, and foundation funding to cover education/training/replication development. Product development itself will be bootstrap funded completely through product sales regardless of foundation funding level fluctuations. We are not accepting traditional investors as a nonprofit organization, as we have already got enough infrastructure in place to carry on effective production. Speaking fees are also expected to bring in $5k/month starting in 2014.

	'''Cost structure'''		'''Cost structure'''
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	*Travel - covered by speaking engagements.		*Travel - covered by speaking engagements.

	$450k in 2012 - see [[10_Month_Development_Roadmap]].		Summary:
	~~About~~ $1.2M per year projected for 2013,		*$450k in 2012 - see [[10_Month_Development_Roadmap]].
	Food, fuel, electricity, and housing costs will go to near 0 after 2015 as we are able to build all the required machinery at low cost.		*~ $1.2M per year projected for 2013,
			*Food, fuel, electricity, and housing costs will go to near 0 after 2015 as we are able to build all the required machinery at low cost.

	What are published industry standards for the above?		What are published industry standards for the above?

Marcin: /* Body */

2012-09-04T16:12:41Z

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	*Travel - covered by speaking engagements.		*Travel - covered by speaking engagements.

	About $1.2M per year.		$450k in 2012 - see [[10_Month_Development_Roadmap]].
			About $1.2M per year projected for 2013,
	Food, fuel, electricity, and housing costs will go to near 0 after 2015 as we are able to build all the required machinery at low cost.		Food, fuel, electricity, and housing costs will go to near 0 after 2015 as we are able to build all the required machinery at low cost.

Marcin: /* Body */

2012-08-03T07:15:13Z

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	#Ability to cross-train people effectively.		#Ability to cross-train people effectively.
	#Synergizing the team with a large number of moving parts by swarming on problems when necessary.		#Synergizing the team with a large number of moving parts by swarming on problems when necessary.
	#H		#Huge risk lies in the assumption that we will have customers for the machines.
			#There is a significant amount of infrastructure upgrades that still need to be done.
			#Recruiting the 24 person team in time will be a significant question.
			#Proving the social sustainability of a group of people who work and live together.
			#Peoples' unwillingness to learn radically new things.
			#Focus in peoples' minds and structural considerations to enable a 2 hour work day. That requires significant learning on the part of the community members.

			The highest risk is people: will they get along? Will they be willing to learn?

Marcin: /* Body */

2012-08-03T07:11:57Z

Body

← Older revision		Revision as of 07:11, 3 August 2012
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	'''Market size, growth, and share'''. We aim to capture 0.1% of the market share. The market is over $1T. It is growing proportionally with population increase.		'''Market size, growth, and share'''. We aim to capture 0.1% of the market share. The market is over $1T. It is growing proportionally with population increase.

	~~==Financial Model==~~		'''Barriers to Success'''
	*See more at [http://blog.rockthepost.com/2012/03/financial-models-for-underachievers-two-years-of-the-real-numbers-of-a-startup/]

	~~#Focus on headcount. Outside~~ of ~~marketing programs, the basis for all cost in Internet software is headcount. Just figure out whom you’ll hire and how much you’ll pay and you can’t go far wrong~~.		We face a number of significant challenges.
	#~~Plan slow, run fast. The most likely scenario is that you won’t be able to hire engineers fast enough, and that revenues will come more slowly too. Investors expect their money~~ to ~~drive artificially accelerated growth rates, but signing up~~ for ~~that sometimes just blows~~ a ~~company up before you’ve had a chance to figure everything out. At least in the financial model, give yourself as much time to grow as you can~~.		#Ability to recruit talent for our synergistic team if we pay only a $2k/month stipend and cover living expenses.
	#~~Run top~~-~~down sanity~~-~~checks. To estimate what a company is likely to spend each year~~, ~~try doubling the average salary~~ and ~~multiplying~~ it by ~~the number of employees. A 100-person company might spend as much as $15 million per year~~.		#The foundation funding plan is hit-or-miss, and it may slow our curriculum development/replication strategy by 2 years.
	#Forget economies of scale. The biggest whopper is that a business will magically become more efficient as it grows. If you really believe this, just walk into the headquarters of Amazon or eBay. Bureaucracies grow. Salaries float away. Straining to ~~make a model work, I always forget that per~~-~~employee costs rise every year.~~		#Ability to cross-train people effectively.
	~~#Admit that revenues are a mystery. If you don’t have any revenues yet, you can’t say what they’ll be. The point of a model is to prove you can make money if~~ people buy your product, not to insist that they will. By developing different scenarios based on different levels of demand, you can later calibrate hiring and spending according to which scenario fits reality best.		#Synergizing the team with a large number of moving parts by swarming on problems when necessary.
	#~~Build from building blocks. Nearly every model is~~ the ~~sum of smaller units. In Redfin’s case, our unit is~~ a ~~market like the San Diego real estate market, which we plan to grow to a certain size in a certain~~ number of ~~months, hopefully returning a certain amount of profit to the overall business. We can then gauge whether the model works~~ by just looking at whether San Diego works, and then asking, “Now what if we had twenty San Diegos?” For another company, it may be a user-created website, with so many page-views and so many ads, or it may be the productivity of a single salesperson, with a million dollars in quota per year.		#H
	#Take out “hope.” Think about what is most likely to happen, so that a bookie would say you’re as likely to out-perform the plan as under-perform it. Generally speaking, “hope” is not a strategy.
	#Flag your assumptions. Rather than burying your assumptions in Excel formulae, call them out in a separate tab of the workbook, so that you have a control panel for adjusting the model. This is especially important if you plan to share your model with potential investors.
	#Hit $100 million in revenues within five years. The premise of most venture investments is the possibility of generating ten-fold returns in five to seven years, which is hard to do if you spend $5 million to build a $25 million company.
	#Keep market-share under 20%. Most startups reach a jillion in projected revenues by assuming that the business grows by leaps and bounds for five years. Since there’s a natural limit on growth, be ready for the question: “What would your market-share be in year five?” If it’s over 20%, take the jillion-dollar projection down a notch. Even a hit like iPod doesn’t have 20% market-share. You’ll be lucky to come close to 20% of any market.

Marcin at 07:07, 3 August 2012

2012-08-03T07:07:31Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 07:07, 3 August 2012
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	What are published industry standards for the above?		What are published industry standards for the above?

	#'''Competition'''. There is a large number of competitors. About 50 of these are shown [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj7WbjRT9mlmdE12c0o1T2FjeFhzYmRKLUthaVVUbEE&hl=en_US#gid=1 here].		'''Competition'''.
	#'''Unique selling proposition'''. ~~How will you differentiate your product or service? Investors look~~ for ~~a sustainable competitive advantage. Short~~-~~term discounts or promotions are not a unique selling proposition~~.
	#'''Market size, growth, and share'''. ~~How big~~ is ~~your market in dollars,~~ is it growing ~~or shrinking, and what percent can you capture? Venture capitalists look for a market~~ with ~~double-digit growth, greater than a billion dollars, and a double-digit penetration plan~~.		There is a large number of competitors. About 50 of these are shown [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj7WbjRT9mlmdE12c0o1T2FjeFhzYmRKLUthaVVUbEE&hl=en_US#gid=1 here].

			'''Unique selling proposition'''. Our unique features are is 4-8 lower cost, lifetime design. modular design, design-for-disassembly, user serviceability, ready interchangeability of parts via Lego-like design.

			'''Market size, growth, and share'''. We aim to capture 0.1% of the market share. The market is over $1T. It is growing proportionally with population increase.

	==Financial Model==		==Financial Model==

Marcin at 07:03, 3 August 2012

2012-08-03T07:03:35Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 07:03, 3 August 2012
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	=Executive Summary=		=Executive Summary=
	#'''The problem and your solution'''. Equipment for building the infrastructures of communities is expensive, is designed for obsolescence, and relies on external inputs of energy and resources. We are bulding open source, low-cost, lifetime design equipment that is easy to maintain and modify using local resources. We are building a Lego set for real infrastructures - to cater to the needs of [[Cultural Disruptives]].		#'''The problem and your solution'''. Equipment for building the infrastructures of communities is expensive, is designed for obsolescence, and relies on external inputs of energy and resources. We are bulding open source, low-cost, lifetime design equipment that is easy to maintain and modify using local resources. We are building a Lego set for real infrastructures - to cater to the needs of [[Cultural Disruptives]].
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	What are published industry standards for the above?		What are published industry standards for the above?

	#'''Competition'''. There is a large number of competitors~~, as~~ shown in .		#'''Competition'''. There is a large number of competitors. About 50 of these are shown [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj7WbjRT9mlmdE12c0o1T2FjeFhzYmRKLUthaVVUbEE&hl=en_US#gid=1 here].
	#'''Unique selling proposition'''. How will you differentiate your product or service? Investors look for a sustainable competitive advantage. Short-term discounts or promotions are not a unique selling proposition.		#'''Unique selling proposition'''. How will you differentiate your product or service? Investors look for a sustainable competitive advantage. Short-term discounts or promotions are not a unique selling proposition.
	#'''Market size, growth, and share'''. How big is your market in dollars, is it growing or shrinking, and what percent can you capture? Venture capitalists look for a market with double-digit growth, greater than a billion dollars, and a double-digit penetration plan.		#'''Market size, growth, and share'''. How big is your market in dollars, is it growing or shrinking, and what percent can you capture? Venture capitalists look for a market with double-digit growth, greater than a billion dollars, and a double-digit penetration plan.