Earth Area Required for a Solar Economy - Revision history

Marcin at 09:27, 7 November 2024

2024-11-07T09:27:47Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:27, 7 November 2024
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	{{Hint\|It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}		{{Hint\|It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}

			=Area=

			About 100k square miles [https://www.axionpower.com/knowledge/power-world-with-solar/#:~:text=A%201%20MW%20solar%20PV,an%2018.54%20TW%20solar%20plant]

	=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=		=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=

Marcin at 09:27, 7 November 2024

2024-11-07T09:27:07Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:27, 7 November 2024
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	{{Hint\|~~About 100k sq minare required to power world with pv [https://www.axionpower.com/knowledge/power-world-with-solar/#:~:text=A%201%20MW%20solar%20PV,an%2018.54%20TW%20solar%20plant].~~ It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}		{{Hint\|It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}

	=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=		=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=

Marcin at 09:25, 7 November 2024

2024-11-07T09:25:05Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:25, 7 November 2024
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	{{Hint\|About 100k sq minare required to power world with pv [https://www.axionpower.com/knowledge/power-world-with-solar/#:~:text=A%201%20MW%20solar%20PV,an%2018.54%20TW%20solar%20plant] .It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}		{{Hint\|About 100k sq minare required to power world with pv [https://www.axionpower.com/knowledge/power-world-with-solar/#:~:text=A%201%20MW%20solar%20PV,an%2018.54%20TW%20solar%20plant]. It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}

	=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=		=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=

Marcin at 09:24, 7 November 2024

2024-11-07T09:24:36Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:24, 7 November 2024
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	{{Hint\|About 100k sq minare required to power world with pv [https://www.axionpower.com/knowledge/power-world-with-solar/#:~:text=A%201%20MW%20solar%20PV,an%2018.54%20TW%20solar%20plant. ].It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}		{{Hint\|About 100k sq minare required to power world with pv [https://www.axionpower.com/knowledge/power-world-with-solar/#:~:text=A%201%20MW%20solar%20PV,an%2018.54%20TW%20solar%20plant] .It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}

	=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=		=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=

Marcin at 09:24, 7 November 2024

2024-11-07T09:24:09Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:24, 7 November 2024
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	{{Hint\|It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}		{{Hint\|About 100k sq minare required to power world with pv [https://www.axionpower.com/knowledge/power-world-with-solar/#:~:text=A%201%20MW%20solar%20PV,an%2018.54%20TW%20solar%20plant. ].It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}

	=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=		=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=

Marcin at 21:06, 15 October 2023

2023-10-15T21:06:15Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:06, 15 October 2023
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	{{Hint\|It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total ~~(and 300TWhr [[Battery Storage]]~~). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}		{{Hint\|It takes $7.5T to go solar with PV (to buy 30TW of PV at current market prices), for 100% of energy use. 30TW would need to be installed in total accounting for 4x safety factor because the sun only shines 1/4 of the day). World now has about 1 TW (2022). Size of carbon credits is about $1T, so carbon credits can be put to PV instead. A good strategy would be to do exactly this: use that revenue to fund PV installs. But how does this work? Is this even worth it? Or, just install PV for customers to get off dinosaur crack? Hoever, the generative route may be more sound: instead of $7.5T, how fast can we do it with an investment of $1B? See [[OSE Theory of Liberation]]}}

	=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=		=Wholesale PV Panel Cost=

Marcin: /* Total Energy Use appears to be That Producible by 30TW of Solar */

2023-10-15T21:05:34Z

Total Energy Use appears to be That Producible by 30TW of Solar

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:05, 15 October 2023
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	**USA is 10kW per person including transportation, heating, cooking.		**USA is 10kW per person including transportation, heating, cooking.
	**40% of all energy is electricity [http://insideenergy.org/2017/01/12/energy-explained/], ie, double the per capita electricity use to get rough estimate of total.		**40% of all energy is electricity [http://insideenergy.org/2017/01/12/energy-explained/], ie, double the per capita electricity use to get rough estimate of total.
	**'''Thus is we include all energy and not just electric''' - Taking best figures - we get about 30 TW installed capacity (including 4x safety factor as sun shines only 4 hours per day). This costs '''$7.5T''' for the PV panels. Integrated with housing, this costs no more.		**'''Thus is we include all energy and not just electric''' - Taking best figures - we get about 30 TW installed capacity (including 4x safety factor as sun shines only 6 hours per day). This costs '''$7.5T''' for the PV panels. Integrated with housing, this costs no more.
	*This means one decade gets us 1.5TW - need a few decades. But this is accelerating.		*This means one decade gets us 1.5TW - need a few decades. But this is accelerating.
	*'''OSE proposal - entrepreneurs get involved in PV module production en masse.'''		*'''OSE proposal - entrepreneurs get involved in PV module production en masse.'''

Marcin: /* Total Energy Use appears to be That Producible by 30TW of Solar */

2023-09-13T19:02:49Z

Total Energy Use appears to be That Producible by 30TW of Solar

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:02, 13 September 2023
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	*Startup cost of PV manufacturing facility - about $1/W so $5M for a 5MW/year facility. But costs underneath are already 2/3 of finished panel cost, see NREL presentation slide 45 reference below. So highest open source advantage comes from vertical integration, which can arguably perform at lower capital cost than PV panel gigafactories.		*Startup cost of PV manufacturing facility - about $1/W so $5M for a 5MW/year facility. But costs underneath are already 2/3 of finished panel cost, see NREL presentation slide 45 reference below. So highest open source advantage comes from vertical integration, which can arguably perform at lower capital cost than PV panel gigafactories.
	Startup plant for PV manufacturing - See [https://www.academia.edu/8045076/How_to_setup_5MW_and_10MW_Solar_PV_Module_Manufacturing_Unit_-_Complete_Business_Model] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [https://ooitech.solar/Solar-Panel-Module-Production-Line/-r-19.html]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-manufacturing-cost.html]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost.		Startup plant for PV manufacturing - See [https://www.academia.edu/8045076/How_to_setup_5MW_and_10MW_Solar_PV_Module_Manufacturing_Unit_-_Complete_Business_Model] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [https://ooitech.solar/Solar-Panel-Module-Production-Line/-r-19.html]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-manufacturing-cost.html]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost.
	*Cost breakdown - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53938.pdf]. But, this is 2011 - so it's about 2 generations ago in PV time.		*{{check}}'''Cost breakdown''' - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53938.pdf]. But, this is 2011 - so it's about 2 generations ago in PV time.
	*Therefore, if we have a bunch of vertically integrated, open source startup entrepreneurs - how much capital would be needed? At a dollar a watt, it's $3T for the transition. Note that the simple calculation of $1/W of PV panels agrees with the Borntoengineer,com article above - which mentions 3-5 tees for the transition. However, we need to multiply this 4x because the sun shines a quarter of the day.		*Therefore, if we have a bunch of vertically integrated, open source startup entrepreneurs - how much capital would be needed? At a dollar a watt, it's $3T for the transition. Note that the simple calculation of $1/W of PV panels agrees with the Borntoengineer,com article above - which mentions 3-5 tees for the transition. However, we need to multiply this 4x because the sun shines a quarter of the day.
	*For roughly 10 trillion (10E12), we need a number of 5MW (5E6)production plants. This number is: 2M entrepreneurs, to do it in a year. The limiting factor is likely to be the solar cells - the core of a PV Panel.		*For roughly 10 trillion (10E12), we need a number of 5MW (5E6)production plants. This number is: 2M entrepreneurs, to do it in a year. The limiting factor is likely to be the solar cells - the core of a PV Panel.

Marcin: /* Total Energy Use appears to be That Producible by 30TW of Solar */

2023-09-13T18:39:53Z

Total Energy Use appears to be That Producible by 30TW of Solar

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:39, 13 September 2023
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	*Then to summarize, WTF is this not happening by next year?		*Then to summarize, WTF is this not happening by next year?
	*Only 150 GW of panels are produced per year [https://www.statista.com/statistics/668764/annual-solar-module-manufacturing-globally/]		*Only 150 GW of panels are produced per year [https://www.statista.com/statistics/668764/annual-solar-module-manufacturing-globally/]
	*Average consumption is 350W per person for 8 billion people. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption] - 3200 kwHr per person [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC]. This means 3 TW needed. But need to multiply by 4 as sun shines 6 hours on average on any place, World. So say it's about 10TW need for installed PV. (yes, but doesn't include other than electricity.		Average consumption is 350W per person for 8 billion people. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption] - 3200 kwHr per person [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC]. This means 3 TW needed (8B350W). But need to multiply by 4 as sun shines 6 hours on average on any place, World. So say it's about 10TW need for installed PV. (yes, but doesn't include other than electricity.
	**USA is 10kW per person including transportation, heating, cooking.		**USA is 10kW per person including transportation, heating, cooking.
	**40% of all energy is electricity [http://insideenergy.org/2017/01/12/energy-explained/], ie, double the per capita electricity use to get rough estimate of total.		**40% of all energy is electricity [http://insideenergy.org/2017/01/12/energy-explained/], ie, double the per capita electricity use to get rough estimate of total.

Marcin: /* More */

2023-09-13T18:38:36Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:38, 13 September 2023
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	Other UMG process - [https://pv-manufacturing.org/silicon-production/upgraded-metallurgical-grade-umg-silicon/]		Other UMG process - [https://pv-manufacturing.org/silicon-production/upgraded-metallurgical-grade-umg-silicon/]

	=~~More~~=		=Total Energy Use appears to be That Producible by 30TW of Solar=

	*http://landartgenerator.org/pdf/PosterSolar.pdf		*http://landartgenerator.org/pdf/PosterSolar.pdf