Flywheel Development Log - Revision history

Marcin: /* Economics */

2023-08-01T18:12:31Z

Economics

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:12, 1 August 2023
Line 18:		Line 18:
	Do you see any defects in my logic so far?		Do you see any defects in my logic so far?

	Taken to:		Taken to: [[Comparison of OSE Build Costs to Industry Standards]]

	=Thu Jul 27, 2023=		=Thu Jul 27, 2023=

Marcin: /* Economics */

2023-08-01T18:11:21Z

Economics

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:11, 1 August 2023
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	##Note that there is a lot of confusion regarding 'margin' and 'markup', and there are many numbers that float around the internet, but the above 100% and 54% markup are consistent with OSE's observations and online query		##Note that there is a lot of confusion regarding 'margin' and 'markup', and there are many numbers that float around the internet, but the above 100% and 54% markup are consistent with OSE's observations and online query
	#This means that if you compound these, the cost over materials (for labor of contractor and subcontractor) is 3.1x the cost of materials!!! To see this, imagine $60k in materials, the subs charge the general contractor $120k total, the contractor pimping the subs takes in 0.54*120k + $120k = $184k. This is just the production cost of a house, no land/legal/anything else.		#This means that if you compound these, the cost over materials (for labor of contractor and subcontractor) is 3.1x the cost of materials!!! To see this, imagine $60k in materials, the subs charge the general contractor $120k total, the contractor pimping the subs takes in 0.54*120k + $120k = $184k. This is just the production cost of a house, no land/legal/anything else.
	#By comparison, our cost is $60k+$25k (1000 hours *$25/hr doable with semi-trained workers, 75% data-backed build time assumption), plus our construction manager~~, which by~~ industry standard is 5-15%, and in our case on the low end because of the reduced build time. So our apples-to apples comparison is $90k vs $184k house. This means, that without even considering 'profit' - we are at $94k net advantage per house over the competition. This $94k is the advantage we have for a small house 2 bath/3 bed of 1300 sf, and it will be greater than this for larger homes. Our cost/sf goes down for larger homes, while our cost advantage to the customer increases over the competition.		#By comparison, our cost is $60k+$25k (1000 hours *$25/hr doable with semi-trained workers, 75% data-backed build time assumption), plus our construction manager (construction manager industry standard pay is 5-15%), and in our case on the low end of 5% because of the reduced build time. So our apples-to apples comparison is $90k vs $184k house. This means, that without even considering 'profit' - we are at $94k net advantage per house over the competition. This $94k is the advantage we have for a small house 2 bath/3 bed of 1300 sf, and it will be greater than this for larger homes. Our cost/sf goes down for larger homes, while our cost advantage to the customer increases over the competition.
	#This looks like a formidable enterprise flywheel that will spin up all other OSE operations and thus begin to deliver on its promises.		#This looks like a formidable enterprise flywheel that will spin up all other OSE operations and thus begin to deliver on its promises.
	#Bottom line: ~~we would net over $100k per small house if we add profit,~~ while still selling at a lower cost (as our quality is much above builder grade - who provides 5kW PV in their base offering?)~~. So this is 2x the initial figure that I predicted of $50k net per house~~. Bottom line is that from first principles, our model is designed to succeed under many scenarios where others would not venture.		#Bottom line: out model allows for robust operation while still selling at a lower cost (as our quality is much above builder grade - who provides 5kW PV in their base offering?). Bottom line is that from first principles, our model is designed to succeed under many scenarios where others would not be able to build or venture.

	Do you see any defects in my logic so far?		Do you see any defects in my logic so far?

			Taken to:

	=Thu Jul 27, 2023=		=Thu Jul 27, 2023=

Marcin: /* Economics */

2023-08-01T18:08:21Z

Economics

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:08, 1 August 2023
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	It took 2 years for me to understand this, and for us to prove this 75% so far:		It took 2 years for me to understand this, and for us to prove this 75% so far:

	#Subcontractor margin is 50% ~~typ~~, so 100% markup. This is industry standard.		#Subcontractor margin is 54% typical , so 100% markup [https://www.invoiceowl.com/blog/general-contractor-markup/#:~:text=Most%20contractors%20are%20looking%20at,difference%20between%20margin%20and%20markup.]. This is industry standard.
	#Contractor margin is 35%, or about 54% markup. This is industry standard.		#Contractor margin is 35%, or about 54% markup [https://www.gierschgroup.com/News/JobCosting]. This is industry standard.
			##Note that there is a lot of confusion regarding 'margin' and 'markup', and there are many numbers that float around the internet, but the above 100% and 54% markup are consistent with OSE's observations and online query
	#This means that if you compound these, the cost over materials (for labor of contractor and subcontractor) is 3.1x the cost of materials!!! To see this, imagine $60k in materials, the subs charge the general contractor $120k total, the contractor pimping the subs takes in 0.54*120k + $120k = $184k. This is just the production cost of a house, no land/legal/anything else.		#This means that if you compound these, the cost over materials (for labor of contractor and subcontractor) is 3.1x the cost of materials!!! To see this, imagine $60k in materials, the subs charge the general contractor $120k total, the contractor pimping the subs takes in 0.54*120k + $120k = $184k. This is just the production cost of a house, no land/legal/anything else.
	#By comparison, our cost is $60k+$25k (1000 hours *$25/hr doable with semi-trained workers, 75% data-backed build time assumption), plus our construction manager, which by industry standard is 5-15%, and in our case on the low end because of the reduced build time. So our apples-to apples comparison is $90k vs $184k house. This means, that without even considering 'profit' - we are at $94k net advantage per house over the competition. This $94k is the advantage we have for a small house 2 bath/3 bed of 1300 sf, and it will be greater than this for larger homes. Our cost/sf goes down for larger homes, while our cost advantage to the customer increases over the competition.		#By comparison, our cost is $60k+$25k (1000 hours *$25/hr doable with semi-trained workers, 75% data-backed build time assumption), plus our construction manager, which by industry standard is 5-15%, and in our case on the low end because of the reduced build time. So our apples-to apples comparison is $90k vs $184k house. This means, that without even considering 'profit' - we are at $94k net advantage per house over the competition. This $94k is the advantage we have for a small house 2 bath/3 bed of 1300 sf, and it will be greater than this for larger homes. Our cost/sf goes down for larger homes, while our cost advantage to the customer increases over the competition.

Marcin: /* Fri Jul 28, 2023 */

2023-07-28T21:26:13Z

Fri Jul 28, 2023

@@ Line 2: / Line 2: @@
 =Fri Jul 28, 2023=
 Separate track: 4 year program. Think of it as the Children of OSE. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning to use tools. Sample penel shipped to us as proof, or other sample modules. Cost - $10k for 6 months. From there, you start getting work-study pay. First 6 months is 50/50 school/work. Work is building. School is learning collaborative culture, principles and practice of open source ecology, peak performance development, towards Movement Entrepreneurship by a [[Survey of Everything]] in the first year, followed by design. At 6 months, you will quality for between $15-25 hourly pay depending on the skill level you attain during the first 6 months - $15 if you remain close to beginner, $25 if you can build at 70% of optimal scale. This figure can grow to optimal scale ($35.7) ( At the 6 month mark, you have the choice to continue on the 50/50 schedule, or move on to 75% class - 25% work schedule. Tuition is $12k per semester for the first year, and we may be able to offer scholarships if we can manage to secure nonprofit sector funding. At the 1 year mark, we review. If you are making satisfactory progress in learning and practical skills, you may continue, in which case we select a project that you will steward for your collaborative senior thesis. The current options are: DMS Studies of Construction, exploring the CEB press, Tractor, or Human Collaborative Vehicles. The first 4 year publication is a group project, intended for widescale replication. It  requires tech development of 1.5 years, and 1.5 year of enterprise model development and proving. $12k for tuition, we have financing available, with the financing
 =Thu Jul 27, 2023=

Marcin: Marcin moved page SEH Flywheel Development Log to Flywheel Development Log

2023-07-28T18:27:26Z

Marcin moved page SEH Flywheel Development Log to Flywheel Development Log

← Older revision	Revision as of 18:27, 28 July 2023
(No difference)

Marcin: /* Fri Jul 28, 2023 */

2023-07-28T18:02:27Z

Fri Jul 28, 2023

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:02, 28 July 2023
Line 2:		Line 2:

	=Fri Jul 28, 2023=		=Fri Jul 28, 2023=
	Separate track: 4 year program. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning to use tools. Sample penel shipped to us as proof, or other sample modules. Cost - $10k for 6 months. From there, you start getting work-study pay. First 6 months is 50/50 school/work. Work is building. School is learning collaborative culture, principles and practice of open source ecology, peak performance development, towards Movement Entrepreneurship. At 6 months, you will quality for between $15-25 hourly pay depending on the skill level you attain during the first 6 months. At the 6 month mark, you have the choice to continue on the 50/50 schedule, or move on to 75% class - 25% work schedule. Tuition is $~~10k~~ per semester for the first year, and we may be able to offer scholarships if we can manage to secure nonprofit sector funding. At the 1 year mark, we review. If you are making satisfactory progress in learning and practical skills, you may continue, in which case we select a project that you will steward for your collaborative senior thesis. The current options are: DMS Studies of Construction, exploring the CEB press, Tractor, or Human Collaborative Vehicles. The first 4 year publication is a group project, intended for widescale replication. It requires tech development of 1.5 years, and 1,5 year of enterprise model development and proving.		Separate track: 4 year program. Think of it as the Children of OSE. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning to use tools. Sample penel shipped to us as proof, or other sample modules. Cost - $10k for 6 months. From there, you start getting work-study pay. First 6 months is 50/50 school/work. Work is building. School is learning collaborative culture, principles and practice of open source ecology, peak performance development, towards Movement Entrepreneurship by a [[Survey of Everything]] in the first year, followed by design. At 6 months, you will quality for between $15-25 hourly pay depending on the skill level you attain during the first 6 months - $15 if you remain close to beginner, $25 if you can build at 70% of optimal scale. This figure can grow to optimal scale ($35.7) ( At the 6 month mark, you have the choice to continue on the 50/50 schedule, or move on to 75% class - 25% work schedule. Tuition is $12k per semester for the first year, and we may be able to offer scholarships if we can manage to secure nonprofit sector funding. At the 1 year mark, we review. If you are making satisfactory progress in learning and practical skills, you may continue, in which case we select a project that you will steward for your collaborative senior thesis. The current options are: DMS Studies of Construction, exploring the CEB press, Tractor, or Human Collaborative Vehicles. The first 4 year publication is a group project, intended for widescale replication. It requires tech development of 1.5 years, and 1.5 year of enterprise model development and proving. $12k for tuition, we have financing available, with the financing

	=Thu Jul 27, 2023=		=Thu Jul 27, 2023=

Marcin: /* Fri Jul 28, 2023 */

2023-07-28T17:57:36Z

Fri Jul 28, 2023

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:57, 28 July 2023
Line 2:		Line 2:

	=Fri Jul 28, 2023=		=Fri Jul 28, 2023=
	Separate track: 4 year program. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning to use tools. Sample penel shipped to us as proof, or other sample modules. Cost - $10k for 6 months. From there, you start getting work-study pay. First 6 months is 50/50 school/work. Work is building. School is learning collaborative culture, principles and practice of open source ecology, peak performance development, towards Movement Entrepreneurship. At 6 months, you will quality for between $15-25 hourly pay depending on the skill level you attain during the first 6 months. At the 6 month mark, you have the choice to continue on the 50/50 schedule, or move on to 75% class - 25% work schedule.		Separate track: 4 year program. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning to use tools. Sample penel shipped to us as proof, or other sample modules. Cost - $10k for 6 months. From there, you start getting work-study pay. First 6 months is 50/50 school/work. Work is building. School is learning collaborative culture, principles and practice of open source ecology, peak performance development, towards Movement Entrepreneurship. At 6 months, you will quality for between $15-25 hourly pay depending on the skill level you attain during the first 6 months. At the 6 month mark, you have the choice to continue on the 50/50 schedule, or move on to 75% class - 25% work schedule. Tuition is $10k per semester for the first year, and we may be able to offer scholarships if we can manage to secure nonprofit sector funding. At the 1 year mark, we review. If you are making satisfactory progress in learning and practical skills, you may continue, in which case we select a project that you will steward for your collaborative senior thesis. The current options are: DMS Studies of Construction, exploring the CEB press, Tractor, or Human Collaborative Vehicles. The first 4 year publication is a group project, intended for widescale replication. It requires tech development of 1.5 years, and 1,5 year of enterprise model development and proving.

	=Thu Jul 27, 2023=		=Thu Jul 27, 2023=

Marcin: /* Fri Jul 28, 2023 */

2023-07-28T17:50:40Z

Fri Jul 28, 2023

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:50, 28 July 2023
Line 2:		Line 2:

	=Fri Jul 28, 2023=		=Fri Jul 28, 2023=
	Separate track: 4 year program. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning building ~~skills~~.		Separate track: 4 year program. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning to use tools. Sample penel shipped to us as proof, or other sample modules. Cost - $10k for 6 months. From there, you start getting work-study pay. First 6 months is 50/50 school/work. Work is building. School is learning collaborative culture, principles and practice of open source ecology, peak performance development, towards Movement Entrepreneurship. At 6 months, you will quality for between $15-25 hourly pay depending on the skill level you attain during the first 6 months. At the 6 month mark, you have the choice to continue on the 50/50 schedule, or move on to 75% class - 25% work schedule.

	=Thu Jul 27, 2023=		=Thu Jul 27, 2023=

Marcin: /* Thu Jul 27, 2023 */

2023-07-28T17:44:24Z

Thu Jul 27, 2023

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:44, 28 July 2023
Line 1:		Line 1:
	aka essential business logic for [[SH4]] and its rollout for replicability.		aka essential business logic for [[SH4]] and its rollout for replicability.

			=Fri Jul 28, 2023=
			Separate track: 4 year program. You have to demonstrate high learning capacity for both learning concepts and learning building skills.

	=Thu Jul 27, 2023=		=Thu Jul 27, 2023=

Marcin at 04:00, 28 July 2023

2023-07-28T04:00:08Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:00, 28 July 2023
Line 1:		Line 1:
	aka essential business logic for [[~~SEH 4~~]] and its rollout for replicability.		aka essential business logic for [[SH4]] and its rollout for replicability.

	=Thu Jul 27, 2023=		=Thu Jul 27, 2023=