Peter Zeihan - Revision history

Marcin: /* Example */

2026-03-11T01:45:39Z

Example

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:45, 11 March 2026
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	==Example==		==Example==
	*Zeihan - PV will never come close to meeting electricity needs		*Zeihan - PV will never come close to meeting electricity needs
	*OSE - PV + thermal battery can displace 70% of global electricity use required for space heating, cooling, and water cooling, and with further system redesign or solar hydrogen burned in the [[ICE]] to generate electricity, can meet most of the needs of humanity.		*OSE - PV + thermal battery can displace 70% of global electricity use required for space heating, cooling, and water cooling, and with further system redesign or solar hydrogen burned in the [[ICE]] to generate electricity, can meet most of the needs of humanity. But it is up to distributed production awakening to make this happen.

	=2026=		=2026=

Marcin: /* Example */

2026-03-11T01:45:19Z

Example

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:45, 11 March 2026
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	==Example==		==Example==
	*Zeihan - PV will never come close to meeting electricity needs		*Zeihan - PV will never come close to meeting electricity needs
	*OSE - PV + thermal battery can displace 70% of global electricity use required for space heating, cooling, and water cooling, and with further system redesign or solar hydrogen, meet most of the needs of humanity.		*OSE - PV + thermal battery can displace 70% of global electricity use required for space heating, cooling, and water cooling, and with further system redesign or solar hydrogen burned in the [[ICE]] to generate electricity, can meet most of the needs of humanity.

	=2026=		=2026=

Marcin: /* Example */

2026-03-11T01:44:33Z

Example

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:44, 11 March 2026
Line 75:		Line 75:
	==Example==		==Example==
	*Zeihan - PV will never come close to meeting electricity needs		*Zeihan - PV will never come close to meeting electricity needs
	*OSE - PV + thermal battery can displace 70% of global electricity use required for space heating, cooling, and water cooling, and with further system redesign, meet most of the needs of humanity.		*OSE - PV + thermal battery can displace 70% of global electricity use required for space heating, cooling, and water cooling, and with further system redesign or solar hydrogen, meet most of the needs of humanity.

	=2026=		=2026=

Marcin: /* Zeihan vs OSE Geopolitical Framework: Constraint Elasticity Model */

2026-03-11T01:44:11Z

Zeihan vs OSE Geopolitical Framework: Constraint Elasticity Model

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:44, 11 March 2026
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	\| Effective collaboration increases the rate of technological deployment and replication.		\| Effective collaboration increases the rate of technological deployment and replication.
	\|}		\|}

			==Example==
			*Zeihan - PV will never come close to meeting electricity needs
			*OSE - PV + thermal battery can displace 70% of global electricity use required for space heating, cooling, and water cooling, and with further system redesign, meet most of the needs of humanity.

	=2026=		=2026=

Marcin: /* Zeihan vs OSE Geopolitical Framework: Constraint Elasticity Model */

2026-03-11T01:42:01Z

Zeihan vs OSE Geopolitical Framework: Constraint Elasticity Model

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:42, 11 March 2026
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	=Zeihan vs OSE Geopolitical Framework: Constraint Elasticity Model =		=Zeihan vs OSE Geopolitical Framework: Constraint Elasticity Model =

			Here is an analysis of Zeihan's geopolitical model - https://chatgpt.com/share/69b0c819-8798-8010-8b45-e2b3bfdc4e16

			OSE modifes this:

	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"

Marcin: /* 2026 */

2026-03-11T01:41:05Z

2026

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:41, 11 March 2026
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			=Zeihan vs OSE Geopolitical Framework: Constraint Elasticity Model =

			{\| class="wikitable"
			! Classical Constraint
			! Classical Geopolitical Interpretation
			! OSE Modifier (Distributed Production + Open Technology)
			! Measurable Index
			! Strategic Implication
			\|-
			\| Geography
			\| Natural features such as rivers, terrain, and ports determine trade efficiency, defense, and economic development.
			\| Distributed manufacturing and local material utilization reduce dependence on long-distance trade and historical transport hubs.
			\| Local Production Density Index (LPDI): number of fabrication-capable production sites per million people.
			\| Geographic disadvantages become less binding when production can occur near the point of use.
			\|-
			\| Demographics
			\| Workforce size and age structure determine economic growth potential and state stability.
			\| Automation, open machines, and rapid apprenticeship systems increase productivity per worker.
			\| Productive Leverage Ratio (PLR): infrastructure output per worker using distributed tools and automation.
			\| Aging populations can maintain infrastructure if machine leverage and skill propagation are high.
			\|-
			\| Energy
			\| National power depends on fossil fuel reserves and secure energy imports.
			\| Distributed renewable generation, open inverters, and localized energy storage increase energy autonomy.
			\| Energy Autonomy Score (EAS): percentage of regional electricity demand met by locally maintainable generation.
			\| Energy security shifts from fuel control to infrastructure replication capability.
			\|-
			\| Food
			\| Food security depends on arable land, fertilizer supply, and global trade networks.
			\| Open agricultural machinery, regenerative farming, greenhouse systems, and distributed processing increase local food capacity.
			\| Regional Food Autonomy Index (RFAI): percent of caloric demand producible within the region.
			\| Regions can buffer global supply disruptions through localized production systems.
			\|-
			\| Logistics
			\| Long supply chains and maritime trade networks enable industrial specialization.
			\| Distributed manufacturing and modular design reduce the need for global logistics.
			\| Supply Chain Compression Ratio (SCCR): average reduction in transport distance for key goods.
			\| Shorter supply chains increase resilience and reduce chokepoint vulnerability.
			\|-
			\| Security
			\| Military power and alliance systems protect trade routes and national borders.
			\| Distributed infrastructure and modular production reduce strategic single points of failure.
			\| Infrastructure Redundancy Index (IRI): ratio of distributed production nodes to centralized facilities.
			\| Economic security shifts from protecting trade routes to maintaining distributed productive capacity.
			\|-
			\| Technical Knowledge Openness
			\| Industrial capability often locked in proprietary designs and specialized institutions.
			\| Open technical documentation and open hardware designs enable widespread replication.
			\| Open Technology Accessibility Index (OTAI): fraction of critical infrastructure designs publicly documented and reproducible.
			\| Societies with open design ecosystems can replicate infrastructure faster.
			\|-
			\| Distributed Production Capacity
			\| Manufacturing concentrated in large factories with capital-intensive systems.
			\| Networks of microfactories and fabrication labs produce infrastructure components locally.
			\| Distributed Fabrication Density (DFD): fabrication nodes per million inhabitants.
			\| Production networks become resilient when fabrication capacity is geographically distributed.
			\|-
			\| Knowhow Propagation
			\| Skill acquisition occurs slowly through traditional education and industrial employment.
			\| Rapid apprenticeship systems, open documentation, and AI-assisted learning accelerate skill spread.
			\| Skill Replication Rate (SRR): number of competent builders trained per year per facility.
			\| Regions that train builders quickly can expand productive capacity rapidly.
			\|-
			\| Institutional Collaboration
			\| State and corporate hierarchies coordinate infrastructure development.
			\| Open standards, collaborative engineering networks, and shared roadmaps enable distributed coordination.
			\| Collaboration Efficiency Index (CEI): successful cross-organization projects per year.
			\| Effective collaboration increases the rate of technological deployment and replication.
			\|}

	=2026=		=2026=
	https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ribrY5okACk		https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ribrY5okACk

Marcin: /* 2026 */

2026-03-11T00:04:30Z

2026

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:04, 11 March 2026
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	=2026=		=2026=
	https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ribrY5okACk		https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ribrY5okACk

			=2024=
			Joe Rogan podcast - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJTw3SzrlQM
			*USA has food and energy
			*China doesn't
			*Nuke batteries are not cool
			*Thermal battery solves solar

	=2022=		=2022=

Marcin: /* 2022 */

2026-03-10T06:02:23Z

2022

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:02, 10 March 2026
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			=2026=
			https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ribrY5okACk
	=2022=		=2022=

Marcin at 16:53, 9 July 2022

2022-07-09T16:53:01Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:53, 9 July 2022
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			=2022=

	<html><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s-cQwRil1H0" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></html>		<html><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s-cQwRil1H0" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></html>

	*Conclusion: time for hydrogen is today to free up the energy equation.		*Conclusion: time for hydrogen is today to free up the energy equation.
	*Book - '''The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization'''		*Book - '''The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization'''

			=2020=

			<html><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jT6HFCAFDgU" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></html>

Marcin at 03:46, 7 July 2022

2022-07-07T03:46:52Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 03:46, 7 July 2022
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	<html><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s-cQwRil1H0" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></html>		<html><iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s-cQwRil1H0" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe></html>

	Conclusion: time for hydrogen is today to free up the energy equation.		*Conclusion: time for hydrogen is today to free up the energy equation.
			*Book - '''The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization'''