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Production Scaling Proposal Brief

<IMG SRC="MJ-open%20source%20ecology_html_m47f3066c.jpg" NAME="graphics1" ALIGN=LEFT WIDTH=48 HEIGHT=46 BORDER=0>

by
Marcin Jakubowski, Ph.D., 



TED Fellow 2011, Sep.
19, 2011

http://opensourceecology.org,
<A HREF="mailto:opensourceecology@gmail.com">opensourceecology@gmail.com</A>

 


Abstract: This is an
investment offer requesting $1/2M seed money for the scaling of
enterprise at <A HREF="http://blog.opensourceecology.org/">Factor
e Farm</A>. We are proposing to
scale <A HREF="http://opensourceecology.org/gvcs.php">Global
Village Construction Set</A>
(GVCS) production earnings to our next milestone - $250k per year net
earnings by year-end 2012 - for bootstrapping further open source
product development. We are interested in the completion of the 50
GVCS tools by year-end 2012 within a budget of $3-5M, with additional
investment motivated by the success of bootstrapping production. The
economic significance is seeding the next trillion dollar industry
within the next 5 years. We aim to achieve this in the form of open
source economic production initiated worldwide via <A HREF="http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Distributive_Enterprise">Distributive
Enterprise</A>, as enabled by
access to the GVCS. One of the intended side effects is the
reinvention of local production, thereby obviating resource
conflicts, as a foundation for a more balanced civilization. 

 

Investement
Opportunity – We are offering a return of 10% per year,
beginning after one year, for seed funding of $500k, for immediate
application to production scaling of Factor e Farm. We will utilize
all funding to scale our production capacity and on-site product
development capacity – by recruiting additional
fabricators/prototypers. We are currently building a 5000 sq ft
digital fabrication facility and 10 living units for on-site, open
source developers. We will utilize all earnings to continue open
source product development of the 50 GVCS tools until product
release.
 

Business Model
We have demonstrated
$5k week earning potential with sales of the CEB press and tractor.
Our business model is calls for an on-site crew of 12 skilled
fabricators (currently we have recruited 3), who engage in 1 week
per month of production, and 3 weeks per month of further GVCS
machine development. Of this $60k per month, 10% will go to satisfy
this investment, between 10 and 35% will go to the prototyper, and
the rest will go be donated to further product development and
optimization of the GVCS. We expect a training and optimization
period of 6 months before such production earnings can occur. We will
also recruit a number of technical documentors on site to generate
rapid-learning fabrication instructionals, including augmented
reality assist for fabricator training.
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Earning Projections

We have begun selling 4
of our machines in their beta release stage – the open source
tractor, automated, high performance CEB Press, Soil Pulverizer, and
Power Cube. We have cleared $3k last year, $25k this year, and next
year we expect a conservative estimate of $125k.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enterprise
Development
 

This
investment will be allocated to developing open source prototypes,
documentation, and enterprise models surrounding 12 prioritized GVCS
tools by July, 2012. These tools are: induction furnace, ironworker
machine, metal rolling, CNC torch table, industrial robot, CNC
multimachine, CNC circuit mill, the modern steam engine, solar
concentrator, gasifier burner, heat exchanger, and pelletizer.
Bootstrapping production funding will be used for developing 9 more
tools in the same time period – the dimensional sawmill, backhoe,
deep well drilling rig, electrical motor/generator, power inverter,
tractor-mounted cement mixer, nickel-iron batteries, baler, and
agricultural combine.
 

The Next Trillion
Dollar Enterprise



We are interested in
seeding the world's next trillion dollar enterprise – in the form
of the distributed, digital fabrication facility that can deliver the
entire Civilization Starter Kit (50 GVCS products). This is to be
achieved via distributive enterprise – ie, Factor e Farm training
future producers based on access to state-of-art digital fabrication
(a subset of the GVCS package) and access to a globally-collaborative
pool of open source design (with the GVCS 50 at its core).
 

For the movement of
distributed production in general, we predict that open source
economics will become the next trillion dollar industry by 2016,
primarily as a result of the GVCS platform:
 

 

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Development Needs
 

Successful production
scaling involves:
<OL>
<LI>Perfecting our
documentation, including Augmented Reality (AR) instructionals
projected right on the working area.
<LI>Recruiting
fabricators and fabricators-in-training
<LI>Continued
improvement and testing of prototypes up to and past full product
release stage.
<LI>Workshop ergonomic
design to optimizing production effectiveness, primarily by
optimization of materials handling and layout.
<LI>Development of
automation to assist in the fabrication process
<LI>Building
accommodations, including provision of organic food with an on-site,
full-time farmer, to maintain health of the crew.
<LI>Securing bids for
outstanding tools of the GVCS.
</OL>
 

Timeline

We expect the workshop
and infrastructure to be built by Nov. 15, 2011, and full
documentation for the tractor, CEB press, soil pulverizer, and Power
Cube to be released by Dec. 24, 2011. By that time, the existing
equipment will be tested thoroughly and improvements will have been
identified for the next production run. By that time, we expect to
have recruited a total of 10 on-site fabricators. We will publish our
complete cost structure by that time, and begin taking product orders
once more.
 

Milestone Assessment

Overall success of GVCS
development is based on the number of prototypes taken to product
release. Each of the 50 GVCS tools goes through 3 prototype
iterations prior to product release.
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To remain on schedule,
and to guarantee expanding earning potential - the following numbers
of prototypes (blue line -150 total, for 50 full product releases
(orange line)) should be achieved:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keys to Success 

 

We are basing the
entire GVCS on proven technologies and techniques. We are simply
open-sourcing these technologies, while adding lifetime, modular
design that promotes cost reduction and maximum service to the user.
Typical cost reduction of open source hardware is 8-fold. The keys to
success are (1), recruiting skilled prototypers to accelerate
development ; (2) optimization of production infrastructure and
ergonomics within a 6 month period from Jan. 2012; (3) maintaining
low development costs by globalo, collaborative, open source product
development; (4) in-house capacity for scrap metal melting and
rolling - to reduce material costs to the price of scrap steel; (5)
and eliminating energy costs via renewable bio-fuels and solar
concentrator energy.
 

 

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Production Scaling Proposal - Revision history

Marcin at 23:01, 25 September 2011

Marcin at 22:58, 25 September 2011

Marcin at 22:57, 25 September 2011