Superforecasting - Revision history

Marcin: /* Notes */

2026-01-25T05:49:19Z

Notes

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:49, 25 January 2026
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	50%—and again the forecaster nailed it. With perverse incentives like these, it’s no		50%—and again the forecaster nailed it. With perverse incentives like these, it’s no
	wonder people prefer rubbery words over firm numbers.		wonder people prefer rubbery words over firm numbers.
			*By contrast, meaningful accountability requires more than getting
			upset when something goes awry. It requires systematic tracking of accuracy—for all the
			reasons laid out earlier. But the intelligence community’s forecasts have never been
			systematically assessed.

Marcin: /* Notes */

2026-01-25T05:41:52Z

Notes

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:41, 25 January 2026
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	human behavior. We tend to go with strong hunches. System 1 follows a primitive		human behavior. We tend to go with strong hunches. System 1 follows a primitive
	psycho-logic: if it feels true, it is.		psycho-logic: if it feels true, it is.
			*Consider that if an
			intelligence agency says there is a 65% chance that an event will happen, it risks being
			pilloried if it does not—and because the forecast itself says there is a 35% chance it will
			not happen, that’s a big risk. So what’s the safe thing to do? Stick with elastic language.
			Forecasters who use “a fair chance” and “a serious possibility” can even make the wrong-
			side-of-maybe fallacy work for them: If the event happens, “a fair chance” can
			retroactively be stretched to mean something considerably bigger than 50%—so the
			forecaster nailed it. If it doesn’t happen, it can be shrunk to something much smaller than
			50%—and again the forecaster nailed it. With perverse incentives like these, it’s no
			wonder people prefer rubbery words over firm numbers.

Marcin: /* Notes */

2026-01-25T05:21:23Z

Notes

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:21, 25 January 2026
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	have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three		have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three
	months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.		months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.

	*Try answering this: “A bat and ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does		*Try answering this: “A bat and ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does
	the ball cost?” If you are like just about everybody who has ever read this famous		the ball cost?” If you are like just about everybody who has ever read this famous

Marcin: /* Notes */

2026-01-25T05:21:00Z

Notes

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:21, 25 January 2026
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	https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock		https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock
	=Notes=		=Notes=
	Foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.		*Foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.
	They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do		They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do
	have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three		have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three
	months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.		months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.
			*Try answering this: “A bat and ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does
	*Try answering this: “A
	bat and ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does
	the ball cost?” If you are like just about everybody who has ever read this famous		the ball cost?” If you are like just about everybody who has ever read this famous
	question, you instantly had an answer: “Ten cents.” You didn’t think carefully to get that.		question, you instantly had an answer: “Ten cents.” You didn’t think carefully to get that.

Marcin at 05:20, 25 January 2026

2026-01-25T05:20:42Z

@@ Line 2: / Line 2: @@
 https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock
+=Notes=
-foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.
+Foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.
 They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do
 have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three
 months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.

Marcin at 05:03, 25 January 2026

2026-01-25T05:03:14Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:03, 25 January 2026
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			Book. https://esotericlibrary.weebly.com/uploads/5/0/7/7/5077636/philip_e._tetlock_-_superforecasting_the_art_and_science_of_prediction.pdf

			https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock

	foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.		foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.
	They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do		They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do
	have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three		have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three
	months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.		months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.

Marcin: Created page with "foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance."

2026-01-25T04:56:36Z

Created page with "foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance."

New page

foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.
They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do
have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three
months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.