Ukraine War Calculations

Numbers

• Russian Economy - Russia is 11th at 1.6T. [1]. SA is #1 at about 10x that, $20T. Ukraine is $110B.
• Military spending - USA 800B, Russia 60B [2]
• Military population - Ukraine 200k, with 900k reserves [3]. Infographic - [4]. Ukraine has 1M, Russia 3M, but Russia has 1M active. [5]
• What does Ukrainian army cosist of at end fo March? 300k active duty, 150k have been called from reserves [6]
• March 21, 22 - Europe provides $1.1B in military aid. [7]
• UK sends another 6k antiarmor/plane missiles to Ukraine by March 23 [8]
• By March 12, 17k antiarmor missiles [9], 300 Javelins at least. 2000 more are coming? [10]
• 45k Javelins and 12k of their launchers have so far been produced, 18+ countries have them [11]. 70k Stingers were made - [12]. 10k NLAWs were made.
• Stingers and NLAWs are $38k. [13]. Javelin - $100k launcher, $78k missile. [14]
• Patriot missiles - system is $1B, missile is $1-6M a pop. [15]
• How equipment is moved from US based to Ukraine - [16]

Feeding Russia

• 40% of Russia's economy is energy crops [17]
• About $500M payments per day come from Europe - $19B in one month. This is because Europe takes about 50% of Russia's petro product
• Same source sez - These countries should have no interest in allowing the price of oil to rise too high, because that will sharply accelerate the long-term transition to renewable energy.
• Total export of Russian oil is about 5M barrels/day - [18]. Saudis can produce 2.2M more barrels per day within a month.
• US imported 700k barrels/day from Russia- or about $70M/day. [19]

Strategy

• How does a Stinger compare to a Patriot?
• How does Patriot compare to a Buk?
• How does Patriot compare to S400? S400 is apparently half the cost, and looks much better on paper. [20]
• Patriots - too expensive and complicated for now? [21]

Needs

• From [22] - 9K33 Osa surface-to-air missile. [23]. 26 countries have them.
• MiG 29 - $5-8M each - [24]. But the West shit its pants as it could be escalatory.
• Buk missiles - [25].
• S300 missile defense against aircraft and ballistic missiles - [26] System is $115M, and each missile is $1M. [27]