Superforecasting: Difference between revisions
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https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock | https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock | ||
=Notes= | =Notes= | ||
Foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. | *Foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. | ||
They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do | They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do | ||
have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three | have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three | ||
months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance. | months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance. | ||
*Try answering this: “A bat and ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does | |||
*Try answering this: “A | |||
bat and ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does | |||
the ball cost?” If you are like just about everybody who has ever read this famous | the ball cost?” If you are like just about everybody who has ever read this famous | ||
question, you instantly had an answer: “Ten cents.” You didn’t think carefully to get that. | question, you instantly had an answer: “Ten cents.” You didn’t think carefully to get that. | ||
Revision as of 05:21, 25 January 2026
https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock
Notes
- Foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades.
They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.
- Try answering this: “A bat and ball together cost $1.10. The bat costs a dollar more than the ball. How much does
the ball cost?” If you are like just about everybody who has ever read this famous question, you instantly had an answer: “Ten cents.” You didn’t think carefully to get that. You didn’t calculate anything. It just appeared. For that, you can thank System 1. Quick and easy, no effort required. But is “ten cents” right? Think about the question carefully. You probably realized a couple of things. First, conscious thought is demanding. Thinking the problem through requires sustained focus and takes an eternity relative to the snap judgment you got with a quick look. Second, “ten cents” is wrong. It feels right. But it’s wrong. In fact, it’s obviously wrong—if you give it a sober second thought. The bat-and-ball question is one item in an ingenious psychological measure, the Cognitive Reflection Test, which has shown that most people—including very smart people—aren’t very reflective. They read the question, think “ten cents,” and scribble down “ten cents” as their final answer without thinking carefully. So they never discover the mistake, let alone come up with the correct answer (five cents). That is normal human behavior. We tend to go with strong hunches. System 1 follows a primitive psycho-logic: if it feels true, it is.