The Energy Question Has an Easy Solution: Difference between revisions
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T_p is payback time. f = reinvestment fraction. So real impact comes from payback time shortening, and reinvestment expansion. | T_p is payback time. f = reinvestment fraction. So real impact comes from payback time shortening, and reinvestment expansion. | ||
If we start with 1 MW, and reinvest 50% of energy back into PV manufacturing as a 'solar breeder reactor' - then we have 17 years to replace all energy on earth. | '''If we start with 1 MW, and reinvest 50% of energy back into PV manufacturing as a 'solar breeder reactor' - then we have 17 years to replace all energy on earth. ''' | ||
If PV has a 0.5-year energy payback time and 50% of its output is reinvested, then the energy basis for replacing global energy use exists on a roughly 17-year timescale from a 1 MW start. | |||
The limiting factor is not energy physics, but capital formation, manufacturing scale-up, material throughput, and coordination. | |||
=Parts of a Panel= | |||
{| class="wikitable sortable" | |||
! Component !! Description !! Typical Embodied Energy Share (% of module) !! Approx. Material Weight Required per 1 MW of Finished PV Panel | |||
|- | |||
| Silicon Feedstock & Ingot || Quartz → polysilicon → crystal growth (Czochralski or similar) || 25–40% || ~1.3–1.6 t silicon in finished modules ''(upstream feedstock needed is 30% higher after kerf/yield losses)'' | |||
|- | |||
| Wafering || Slicing ingots into wafers (kerf loss, sawing energy) || 10–20% || N/A — process step, not a distinct added bulk material | |||
|- | |||
| Cell Processing || Doping, diffusion, etching, deposition (PECVD), metallization || 15–25% || N/A — process step, not a distinct added bulk material; added metallization mass is small relative to module mass | |||
|- | |||
| Glass (Front Sheet) || Tempered low-iron solar glass (~3–4 mm) || 10–20% || ~31–39 t | |||
|- | |||
| Encapsulant (EVA/POE) || Polymer layers for lamination || 3–8% || ~3.1–3.9 t | |||
|- | |||
| Backsheet (or rear glass if bifacial) || Polymer backsheet or second glass layer || 3–10% || ~1.7–2.1 t for polymer backsheet modules; much higher for glass-glass modules | |||
|- | |||
| Aluminum Frame || Extruded frame + finishing || 5–15% || ~5.9–7.4 t | |||
|- | |||
| Junction Box & Wiring || Diodes, copper wiring, connectors || 2–5% || ~2.0–2.5 t ''(junction box polymers, silicones, copper interconnects, cables, solder, diodes combined)'' | |||
|- | |||
| Module Assembly || Lamination, curing, handling, factory overhead || 3–8% || N/A — assembly step, not a distinct bulk material | |||
|- | |||
! Total !! || ~100% || ~46–58 t of finished module mass per MW | |||
|} | |||
=Links= | =Links= | ||
*[[Embodied Energy of PV]] | *[[Embodied Energy of PV]] | ||
Latest revision as of 09:07, 22 March 2026
Energy payback is now as little as 0.5 years for utility scale PV. Not counting any open source integrated design improvements. To take it to 0.25 year energy payback time (UMG gets us 30% lower energy already), which is impossible, and thus a perfect project for OSE to take on.
But if we start with 1MW of PV power, and use 1/2 of that for producing more PV - then the time to breed 20TW, starting from 1 MW - is :
T_p is payback time. f = reinvestment fraction. So real impact comes from payback time shortening, and reinvestment expansion.
If we start with 1 MW, and reinvest 50% of energy back into PV manufacturing as a 'solar breeder reactor' - then we have 17 years to replace all energy on earth.
If PV has a 0.5-year energy payback time and 50% of its output is reinvested, then the energy basis for replacing global energy use exists on a roughly 17-year timescale from a 1 MW start. The limiting factor is not energy physics, but capital formation, manufacturing scale-up, material throughput, and coordination.
Parts of a Panel
| Component | Description | Typical Embodied Energy Share (% of module) | Approx. Material Weight Required per 1 MW of Finished PV Panel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silicon Feedstock & Ingot | Quartz → polysilicon → crystal growth (Czochralski or similar) | 25–40% | ~1.3–1.6 t silicon in finished modules (upstream feedstock needed is 30% higher after kerf/yield losses) |
| Wafering | Slicing ingots into wafers (kerf loss, sawing energy) | 10–20% | N/A — process step, not a distinct added bulk material |
| Cell Processing | Doping, diffusion, etching, deposition (PECVD), metallization | 15–25% | N/A — process step, not a distinct added bulk material; added metallization mass is small relative to module mass |
| Glass (Front Sheet) | Tempered low-iron solar glass (~3–4 mm) | 10–20% | ~31–39 t |
| Encapsulant (EVA/POE) | Polymer layers for lamination | 3–8% | ~3.1–3.9 t |
| Backsheet (or rear glass if bifacial) | Polymer backsheet or second glass layer | 3–10% | ~1.7–2.1 t for polymer backsheet modules; much higher for glass-glass modules |
| Aluminum Frame | Extruded frame + finishing | 5–15% | ~5.9–7.4 t |
| Junction Box & Wiring | Diodes, copper wiring, connectors | 2–5% | ~2.0–2.5 t (junction box polymers, silicones, copper interconnects, cables, solder, diodes combined) |
| Module Assembly | Lamination, curing, handling, factory overhead | 3–8% | N/A — assembly step, not a distinct bulk material |
| Total | ~100% | ~46–58 t of finished module mass per MW |