Superforecasting: Difference between revisions
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(Created page with "foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.") |
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Book. https://esotericlibrary.weebly.com/uploads/5/0/7/7/5077636/philip_e._tetlock_-_superforecasting_the_art_and_science_of_prediction.pdf | |||
https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock | |||
foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. | foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. | ||
They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do | They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do | ||
have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three | have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three | ||
months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance. | months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance. | ||
Revision as of 05:03, 25 January 2026
https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock
foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.