| Thinker
|
Domain
|
Signature Modeling Method
|
Debiasing Technique
|
Key Asset
|
| Donella Meadows
|
Systems science, ecology, policy
|
Stocks, flows, feedback loops, leverage points
|
Forces analysts to move from event-level thinking to structural causation
|
Wikipedia
|
| Jay Forrester
|
System dynamics
|
Dynamic simulation of feedback systems
|
Simulation exposes delayed effects and unintended consequences
|
Wikipedia
|
| Elinor Ostrom
|
Institutional economics
|
Institutional Analysis and Development framework
|
Comparative case studies prevent oversimplified governance models
|
Wikipedia
|
| Philip Tetlock
|
Forecasting science
|
Probabilistic forecasting and calibration
|
Brier scoring and iterative probability updates
|
Wikipedia
|
| Daniel Kahneman
|
Behavioral economics
|
Cognitive bias experiments
|
Structured decision protocols reduce bias
|
Wikipedia
|
| Thomas Schelling
|
Game theory, geopolitics
|
Strategic interaction models
|
Incentive analysis counters attribution bias
|
Wikipedia
|
| John Sterman
|
System dynamics, management
|
Simulation of policy resistance
|
Model testing reveals hidden assumptions
|
Wikipedia
|
| Herbert Simon
|
Organizational theory, AI
|
Bounded rationality models
|
Recognizes cognitive limits and satisficing behavior
|
Wikipedia
|
| Nassim Nicholas Taleb
|
Risk and uncertainty
|
Tail risk analysis and antifragility
|
Stress testing assumptions and highlighting unknowns
|
Wikipedia
|
| Daron Acemoglu
|
Political economy
|
Institutional comparative analysis
|
Natural experiments and cross-country comparisons
|
Wikipedia
|
| Douglass North
|
Economic history
|
Institutional evolution models
|
Historical comparison prevents ahistorical reasoning
|
Wikipedia
|
| James C. Scott
|
Political anthropology
|
State legibility vs local knowledge analysis
|
Field observation counters planner bias
|
Wikipedia
|
| Amartya Sen
|
Development economics
|
Capability approach
|
Avoids metric fixation on GDP
|
Wikipedia
|
| Amos Tversky
|
Cognitive psychology
|
Heuristic and bias experiments
|
Identifies systematic judgment errors
|
Wikipedia
|
| George Box
|
Statistics
|
Iterative model testing
|
“All models are wrong” prevents model reification
|
Wikipedia
|
| Peter Senge
|
Organizational learning
|
Mental model surfacing and shared learning
|
Collective reflection on hidden assumptions
|
Wikipedia
|
| Mancur Olson
|
Political economy
|
Collective action theory
|
Incentive analysis counters naive cooperation assumptions
|
Wikipedia
|
| Albert O. Hirschman
|
Development economics
|
Possibilism and adaptive policy discovery
|
Rejects deterministic models of development
|
Wikipedia
|
| Jane Jacobs
|
Urban economics
|
Grounded observation of urban systems
|
Direct observation counters planner abstraction
|
Wikipedia
|
| Vaclav Smil
|
Energy systems, civilization metabolism
|
Quantitative analysis of energy and material flows
|
Physical constraints counter ideological narratives
|
Wikipedia
|
| Russell Ackoff
|
Systems design
|
Interactive planning and system redesign
|
Prevents suboptimization of system parts
|
Wikipedia
|
| Stafford Beer
|
Cybernetics
|
Viable system model
|
Information-flow analysis counters centralization bias
|
Wikipedia
|
| Gregory Bateson
|
Systems ecology, epistemology
|
Pattern recognition across feedback systems
|
Observer reflexivity prevents category bias
|
Wikipedia
|
| Ludwig von Bertalanffy
|
General systems theory
|
Open systems analysis
|
Counters reductionism with holistic modeling
|
Wikipedia
|