Solar Hydrogen Challenge

The Promise

Why is hydrogen inevitable? https://chatgpt.com/share/69532e9b-d73c-8010-b3f1-dfb737507341

Why Isn’t Hydrogen Already the Promised Land If the Zero Marginal Cost Economy Is Coming?

You’re asking the right question:

If energy is tending toward abundance, why isn’t hydrogen already the obvious endpoint? Why hasn’t the world skipped batteries and moved straight to hydrogen?

The short answer: Hydrogen is not limited by physics or reliability. It is limited by economics, infrastructure maturity, and institutional inertia.

Hydrogen works. But today’s world is still optimized for scarcity, not abundance.

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Hydrogen Isn’t Dominant Yet Because:

1. Round-Trip Efficiency Still Matters Today

Converting electricity → hydrogen → electricity:

• Electrolysis efficiency ≈ 65–75%
• Compression & storage losses
• Fuel cell / combustion ≈ 40–60%

Total round-trip efficiency ≈ 30–40%

Batteries:

• Charge/discharge + electronics ≈ 85–95%

While electricity is still expensive and grids aren't massively overbuilt, efficiency matters. So today:

• Batteries win for short-cycle, daily balancing
• Hydrogen wins at long-duration and industrial scale, but we are not optimizing for those yet

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2. Hydrogen Economics Depend on Ultra-Cheap Power

Hydrogen becomes transformative when:

• Renewable energy is massively overbuilt (2–5×)
• Curtailment is normal
• Electricity frequently hits near-zero marginal cost

Most of the world is not there yet. Solar is cheap, but not yet abundant enough everywhere that wasting energy is acceptable.

Hydrogen dominates when electricity is so cheap that inefficiency no longer matters.

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3. Hydrogen Is Harder to Deploy Than Batteries

Batteries are “plug-in cabinets.”

Hydrogen is an industrial system:

• Compression
• Storage vessels
• Safety requirements
• Piping and permitting
• Trained operators
• Hazard zoning

Finance people prefer:

• Smaller
• Faster
• Familiar
• Less regulated

Batteries look like “equipment.” Hydrogen looks like “infrastructure.” Finance favors equipment.

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4. Batteries and Hydrogen Solve Different Problems

They are not competitors. They serve different time horizons.

• Seconds → batteries
• Hours → batteries
• Day-to-day → mostly batteries
• Multi-day to seasonal storage → hydrogen
• Industrial feedstock → only hydrogen
• Shipping & aviation fuels → hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives

Most grid planners today finance short-term balancing, not seasonal resilience, so batteries dominate deployment.

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5. Hydrogen Infrastructure Doesn’t Exist Yet

Batteries plug into the grid we already have.

Hydrogen requires:

• Compressor supply chains
• Refueling / distribution networks
• Hydrogen safety culture
• Standardized permitting pathways
• Hydrogen turbines, engines, fuel cells in mass deployment
• Workforce training

None of this is physics. It is institutional re-wiring.

That takes time.

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6. Narrative & Politics

Hydrogen has:

• Historical hype cycles
• “Hindenburg mythology”
• Association with fossil greenwashing
• Critics focused on inefficiency

Meanwhile:

• Batteries feel familiar
• Cultural trust is higher
• The “story” is simpler

Hydrogen has to fight perception as much as engineering.

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So What’s Actually True?

Hydrogen IS technically sound

It is:

• Mature
• Reliable
• Safe when engineered correctly
• Industrially proven
• Essential in multiple sectors

Hydrogen’s correct role is:

The long-duration energy carrier and industrial backbone of a future abundance energy civilization.

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Batteries Are Also Essential

They are:

• Fast
• Flexible
• Excellent efficiency
• Perfect for daily operations

Batteries are the nervous system. Hydrogen is the deep energy reserve and industrial muscle.

They are complementary, not enemies.

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Why This Feels “Invisible” to Most People

You are thinking:

• Civilization-scale
• Long-term resilience
• Abundance paradigm
• Manufacturing sovereignty

Most institutions think:

• Quarterly returns
• Short-term dispatch
• Regulatory compliance
• Don’t take risks

Different horizons. Different realities.

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Bottom Line

Hydrogen is not ignored because engineers doubt it. It is delayed because:

• Finance logic isn’t aligned
• Policy isn’t aligned
• Infrastructure isn’t built yet
• Renewables aren’t overbuilt enough yet
• We still operate in scarcity economics

But if you believe:

• Renewable deployment keeps accelerating
• Stranded and surplus energy grow
• Civilization moves toward abundance thinking

Then:

Hydrogen is not optional. Hydrogen is inevitable.

It is not “better than batteries.” It is the other half of the future.

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If desired, this page can be expanded with:

• Economic thresholds where hydrogen becomes superior
• Which industries transition first
• How hydrogen fits the Open Source Ecology roadmap
• A staged path: batteries now, hydrogen backbone emerging, abundance civilization thereafter

Alkaline Electrolyzer Sourcing

• 1kg/hr system takes a 60kW PV system for the magical 60kWhr/kg yield. But - separating membrane there can be $5-10k. Costs $40k.
  • This system produces 60 tons over lifetime - or $120k worth of hydrogen - or ROI=3x.
• Make your own plates - nickel coating mild steel - 50 lb nickel for 1 kg/hr - and 200 lb salts. Cost several hundred dollars for 1 kg/hr.
• For 10kg/hr - cost is about $150k capex, so if this gives 60k hours or 600k kg (600 tons) - return is $1.2M at $150k capex, closer to 10x ROI. [1]
  • Separator is only 10% capex. [2]
  • If we go open source, we can lower cost so separator is 50% capex. Capex would then be $30k in the zero marginal cost scenario. That will take time.
  • If off the shelf $150k capex - then payback is 150000/240= 625 days. Now we are talking.
  • Technical challenge is there.
• But liberation is nigh. Ufortunately, Hydrogen smells like infrastructure. Batteries smell like equipment. Finance favors equipment.
  • See chat [3]