Superforecasting
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https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock
foresight is real. Some people—people like Bill Flack—have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill at judging how high-stakes events are likely to unfold three months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance.