3D Printer Distributive Enterprise Test
Given existing 3D printer production trends - http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838451/global-3d-printer-shipments-will-double-over-the-next-year.html - here are some thoughts.
The 3D printer industry can be a great testbed for demonstrating whether open source or closed source machines dominate the market. According to open source theory, an open source machine tends to dominate the marketplace, as it becomes cheaper and better than proprietary counterparts - assuming the open technology is mature and sufficient technical development/documentation has occurred.
If an open technology exists and an open business model exists, then new open source companies can in principle start up in mass on a rapid time scale. Does the open source paradigm allow this to happen?
OSE predicts that open enterprise will dominate the marketplace, but only within the framework of a Distributive Enterprise (http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Distributive_Enterprise) model. This means that successful open source businesses do not tend to replicate wildly - unless a specific effort is created for supporting and creating such new businesses. This is because the barriers to entry to enterprise are still considerable, as running a successful enterprise is no small task. OSE theorizes here that IF an explicit effort or vehicle is created specifically for the replication of an open hardware-based enterprise - only then can viral enterprise replication occur. OSE theorizes that a rapid growth of enterprise will occur until the point of market saturation. A byproduct of such a model is distribution of wealth stemming from a large number of companies being created.
OSE theorizes that an enterprise startup and ramp-up can take on the order of a month of time for an enterprise that is based on a proven technology - such as the 3D printer - as a sole proprietorship or team of 2. OSE is developing open development and accelerator techniques that allow a company startup in one month of time - from zero to a production level of 24 small machines such as a 3D printer per month - utilizing an extreme production workshop model, and that such an enterprise can growing to full capacity in about a year of time - full capacity being a casual level of 50 3D printers per month in 2 workshops. This is a net revenue potential of about $150k per year as a small business.
As such, the growth potential of open enterprise is clearly greater than that of a proprietary company. How? Imagine the 2015 predicted sales volume of 200k 3D printers (3D_Printer_Market_Volume). Over one year, one enterprise can produce 500 3D printers via distributed manufacturing as above. There would have to be only 200 such enterprises created to dominate the market - thinking of it as creating 200 entrepreneurs. OSE is positioning itself as an entrepreneurship training service to train such numbers of people, such that open enterprise is the dominant player. This brings with it a tendency towards open, accelerated innovation by tapping wealth distribution as the driver of technological progress.