Billion Per Day Operation
Meeting or exceeding industry standards of enterprise performance implies creating an enterprise at least as successful (sales volume + net revenue combined) as common industrial counterparts. The comparison case should be made against existing hardware enterprises, such as Apple (94B) Saudi Aramco (105B in the extractive economy), Samsung (34B), Amazon ($33B). The most relevant comparison would be against information age companies, since we are stating that unbridled access to information is OSE's economic flywheel. Software companies do not count, as they are 1000x easier to open source than hardware. Amazon should be considered as it is a software-centric company, but it does have a core logistics/hardware component. Walmart does not count as it is primarily sales as opposed to production. This leaves only Apple, Samsung, and Amazon as the top 3 comparison cases. Apple is the clear hallmark at 80% revenue from hardware . What follows below is a comparison to Amazon, given the highest similarity to the Open Source Everything way of OSE, so we apologize in advance for starting with Amazon instead of Apple. Comparison to Amazon is OSE's entry point to Distributed Market Substitution, though we are clear that getting to the scale of Apple would be required to prove the case of open hardware. Indeed, clear superiority would imply 10x the scale of Apple, or $1T net per year. Given that OSE's aim is economic distribution, this would be achievable via an open franchise, any single organization at such a scale is probably ludicrous and beyond the notions of 'small is beautiful' that we follow.
- Net is important - what you make is irrelevant, what you keep is relevant.
- What is the largest corporation in the world in terms of net revenue? Saudi Aramco, with $100B net. Up in top 10 are the usual suspects including Berkshire: IT, Oil, and Banks, with Amazon at 11th at $33B. . Microsoft is most profitable with 36% margin, followed by Berkshire with 33%. Rest are 25% or less, Saudi Aramco at 25%.
- What is the total value of the top 100 and top 1000 corporations in the world? Top 100 - assume $1B after 50, so the top few surpass that by 100x themselves and thus after 50 it would be only a few percent, so top 100 = top 50 - about $20B net average. Thus top 100 are about $1T net revenue.
- Essentially, largest takehome is $100B. That is $250M per day. So it's only a quarter B per day, and for logistics-based operations - one third of that (Amazon) at $90M/day. Roughly speaking, we need to be at $100M/day to be the most successful hardware operation.
- How many Seed Eco-Homes value is that per day? 1000 per day at $100k 'net' where 'net' is equivalent to the standard net if OSE 'net' is Regenerative Capital.
- How many allied OSE operations does it take to do this? At the 24 person core operation, a house is built in 5 days. At the scaled 240 person village campus, 2 houses are built per day. And $73M/year in the robust version. 500 such operations are thus necessary. OSE's current big picture strategy is to robustify the Seed Eco-Home enterprise towards free land and materials, thus retaining labor as the main expense. After free materials and land, there is automation that converts labor to R&D, as heavy investment in R&D pays off with increased effectiveness. If we can increase effectiveness via R&D, then the core of OSE's work shifts from mastery of Manual Knowledge Work to a track of R&D, embodying lifelong learning.
- For planning purposes, let's say 50 houses per year for a 24 person crew - 1000 hours is one week, with 50 weeks per year, or about 1/7 per day. There is a factor of 7000 to 1000 per day. So we need a factor of 7000 from a 24 person operation.
- We have 10x in a 240 person operation, slated for 2025. Thus a factor of 700x left.
- 700 - or 350 as Dunbar's number + Sister Cities. With one operation developed by 2025, the next class of Dunbar's Number can begin, with the requirement that each movement entrepreneur enlists a single apprentice at the 4 year mark, cutting their apprentice's learning time in half to 4 years. It would require 8 years to train the movement entrepreneur to responsibility, assuming that we are growing the integrated talent in house. There is otherwise too much risk in recruiting external executive power. This is also stretching the limit of Dunbar's number. So we should inject a 2x somehow to get back to Dunbar's number.
- This is all within the stretch realm of a Dunbar-number of OSE Campuses worldwide, implemented as Sister Cities - each having the equivalent of 240 effective half-time workers - work-study students. In fact, only 500 of such villages are required to change the world. This is based on $100k net per house with a cost structure of an Economy of Integration - materials value capture - $25k, labor value capture $25k, profit value capture $25k and Integrated Design value capture (CAD-BOM-Build efficiency) at $25k.
- Stretch Dunbar Number is 500 - with 'sister cities' goes down to 250 - which is a strech but manageable Dunbar Number scale for super-relational high performers.
- Each 240 person operation is $73M net, a world class facility replicated at least 50 times, with allowance for Dunbar's number of these as a naturally manageable scale.
- 24 person operation by 2024, 240 person ops by 2025, few replications by 2026. By 2028, there may be a chance for 500 such campuses, or it could take 2 or 3 more decades to regenerate the world.