Daniel Schmachtenberger

2024

• Silicon Dreams and Carbon Nightmares - [1]

Good one. MJ Comments:

• Fortunately, there are 2 major safety valves for the total collapse proposed: solar energy and the Hardware Compiler Problem
• The hardware compiler problem indicates that while AI may seize all computation power, there is not a clear link between computational power and physical translation to reality - without an intermediary in the form of a 'compiler.' This compiler is not trivial to build. MJ guesses that once the compiler problem is recognized, there will be a tendency to mid-course correct towards full regeneration. This is because it becomes that integrated humans in harmony with natural life support systems, with machines and AI at their disposal - will be preferable to the Silicon Savior.
  • Ie, a benign endpoint is collaboration between humans and machines - an obvious point to recognize but harder to implement
• The Binding concept is correct. We must bind to regenerative use. The goal of the OSE experiment is to demonstrate a micro-civilization (nominally 2400 person scale) which is regenerative and self-contained. If a single example can be produces, this can reset the index of possibility for civilization.
• Fusion dreams: as a former fusion scientist, I find fusion a bad idea. First, there is an energy extraction problem (not a production problem) - we can 'easily' obtain over unity fusion, but the difficult part is extracting that energy in usable form from a fusion reactor. There is currently no known physics that suggests feasibility of such an endeavor without radioactive waste. Unless new laws of physics are discovered (alernate realities) - this is not a tractable problem. And this is not to mention the cost of fusion fuel - tritium costs about 1000 times more than coal for an equivalent amount of energy. Thus, the happy marriage of General AI with fusion energy appears to me to be only a badly-written romance novel.
• The above leads to a positive possibility: renewable energy, not fusion, will be lord in the future. This bodes well for power distribution to humanity, in the physical and metaphorical sense.

More notes:

• That solar cells 'raise the amount of fossil fuel use' is misleading. Solar cells have an energy payback time of 2 years. See: Energy Payback Time of PV. Overall, fossil fuel use is rising. This is not because there is more PV, because added PV displaces coal, and in a well-designed system, could displace all coal and fossil fuels.
• No mention of the obvious solar hydrogen economy is missing.

Summary

We are at a point of existential risk via a collapse of sensemaking in a world of exponential technology.

An eloquent collapsitarian viewpoint, with solutions consisting of a mind shift.

Governance solutions -

Ethical downward selection is mentioned.

Individualistic thinking is an issue mentioned. Solution is We.

Antirivalry is a solution. Master one's own self first.

Humans are fragile - we are more vulnerable because we make our own niches.

Recognizing connectedness. Cognitive aspect is a start. Such as what we are w

Psychadelics, meditation.

Hopeful or pesimistic? It's a shift from single cell to multiple cell. Exponential increase in human capacity is a terminal process.

Evolution by design.

it will require learning a bunch of shit that you don't already know

Apex predator - human - as tech gets us technology of gods, we need to match that with the wisdom of gods.

Nature of evolution is nonlinear. What are the necessary and sufficient criteria for nonextinction.

Political leaders are not part of the solution.

Caterpillar metaphor - you cannot predict that a destroyer turns into a productive pollinator.

Nonlinear phase shift.

Rivalrous dynamics self-terminate.

Individual sense-making is not sufficient.

Stop trying to win at the dying game.

Conflict resolution is first.

Can't follow the old manual. The new manual doesn't exist yet.

Things to do: working on the future of education, and how to facilitate the development of young humans to be healthy, sovereign humans.

Consilience Project

Holy shit - In the last 20 years, the internet and social media have radically transformed and fragmented the media landscape. With the decline of subscription-based news and investigative journalism, the rise of consolidated media companies aligned with partisan aims, and the development of social media’s algorithmically driven filter-bubbles that reinforce bias and tribalism, the ideas of “trusted authorities” and shared truth have largely collapsed. - https://www.civilizationresearchinstitute.org/our-projects

Notes

We should connect with this guy - he said something about launching a 'frist product in Q1 of 2021'. If this guy is a serious supercooperator, then I'm inclined to conclude that his product is open source - otherwise he's just talking shit, ie, his actions do not match his words. My take on this is that it only takes a few people to launch a few good products that result is a cascade of distributed market substitution - ie, a historic economic shift that is a byproduct of the collaborative logic. https://wiki.opensourceecology.org/wiki/Distributed_Market_Substitution