OSE Scaling Matrix

From Open Source Ecology
Jump to: navigation, search


  • Time, space, extent, inent, and distribution/fractality are 5 core elements of conceptualizing growth.
  • Time - extend time scales, and anything can happen. Question is, how to make long time tractable to people if they have immediate needs.
  • Space - extend space scales. Extend the range of operation in terms of countries, or areas - as a distributed method. Make things larger - such as a larger build.
  • Extent - Extent is the time+space scale combined - how large to make something?
  • Intent - that can be embodied by commitment, clarity of vision, focus. Or scope, making the package more integrated. Not making fart apps.
  • 'Distribution - across time, space, extent, intent. If we can see this, we are golden, but collaborative literacy is a major bottleneck in achieving this. Worse is Better achieves distribution.

Seed Eco-Home Scaling Concept

To scale the Eco-Home operation. We start with a strong nucleus of intent and distribution. We conceptualize growth, per time - but if time is too short, simply expand the time taken. For space - distribute the effort to all corners of the world. Make sure people find out about this - make this a conscious effort via transformative organizations. For large spatial reach - it is important to find out who has a movement entrepreneurship mindset in a true sense, towards colloborative design. Not fake open source or collaborative - but genuine.

Case Scenarios

Earned revenue of $50k/house or unearned revenue of $25k arise from a given time duration. Perhaps 3 months. Could be as little as 1 month, or even 2 weeks in extreme cases where land and permits are already secured. The first phase is the plans stage - permits and land. Many of these can be aligned by stakeholders, who submit their package to a building department, but prior to submitting a package if they do not have land yet, they meet with the building official to check where the Seed Eco-Home can be built. For ADUs, there is more or less a captive audience.

If a normal pathway is 1 month of plan (customer acquisition, build contract, land, plans) - 1 month of build - then we have a 2 month program of which the first month is remote, and the second on site. The remote program involves a walk-through video of the land parcel under consideration, to determine site factors. The intent factor - of off-grid utilities - is a big question for waste processing facilities that can be placed on site in the form of an aquaponic, food-producing greenhouse. Complete automation of the system - with sawdust as the feedstock.

For an apprenticeship program, a good scenario is 12-24 students for 4 house builds in 3 months immersion. There are, further, different tracks - tech school, construction management, design, enteprise, machine design, and automation. It is an immersion program with 4 hours hands on, and 4 hours of school, every day. The point is an immersive experience. Others can log in to the online lectures and materials, for all the parts of a build, specific tool/technique lessons, and more. Many videos exist for this. Free online. The paid part is for the actual build training on site.

24 people participate per cohort, approx $2k-5k/mo tuition depending on the track, for a total revenue of (half tech track, half visionary track) of $84k per month for the school aspect. We are building homes for real customers, with design support for 1-2 houses per month - which select people in the design track also learn. The students participate on one or all aspects - depending on which track they signed up for. We thus have 1.5 houses done each month, for an additional $75k revenue per month and $160k total revenue per month. This constitutes a robust education opportunity, where we hire the graduates upon finishing the work.

The specific cohort mix is important. Some apprentices will go on their own after 3 months, filling orders from clients. The goal is to learn sufficient management skill to build 1 home per entrepreneuer/manager, paired with assistants. Crew depends on specifics - but perhaps 4 is ideal. For 4 people, the pay scale is $4k/mo + $8k/mo for management - $20k in labor or people that we hire. That leaves $30k revenue for OSE per build. For 4 people, that is 560 hours of house build time in one month. A small fraction may be offset by sweat equity of owner builder. The other extremes are a complete turnkey build, or a complete swarm build for a person in need. Financing like Habitat for Humanity would need to be used.

1 year cycle - Quantity of Houses Built

  • $6.5k revenue per person. Cohort of 12. for $78k revenue for 3 month program - 1 year of salary required for students as a result. Runway from $78k - monthly pay is $4k*12 + $8k*2=$64k monthly. Builders are independent contractors, self-employed. Just 1 month runway.
  • But, we are producing a house per week ideally, with enterprise track people leading the way. So we are producing 1 house per week as baseline as we go up to speed. $200k revenue per month - and costs are $50k for builders and 100k for managers. Leaving $50k for OSE. On this schedule, 3 houses per month are minimum requirement to continue paying people.
  • Thus, a one house per week scenario - with 24 people - gives us 960 hour per week - quite secure for getting it done. Ideally we double this rate. So 1 house per week is reasonable, especially if we split among 2 or more sites and take normal 2 weeks or longer.
  • Potential rollout - (1) finish the build at the OSE Campus. (2) push out videos for clients pending tight control over build budget. (3) Yearly number of clients is...
  • Once we have built capacity after 3 months of training and 4 houses built during training - people are fully capable of doing the build, design, construction management work. We have a back office, staffed by the enterprise team. Missing link is sales and customer relations at first. Design customization can happen by Catarina and her design team. One week with 12 people means 480 hours, and 672 hours if overtime. 480 hours is $12k labor per house. Perhaps $25/hr starting for construction, 35 for management, 45 for design/management, and 50 for OSE chapters or enterprise tracks.
  • Say we need 12 workers + 1 manager - $14k ($12k workers at 1 a pop, $2k for manager). Back office support is on top of that, or $2k. $16k costs minimum per week, x 4 weeks is $64k. Breakeven operation at 1.3 houses per month for full time work. Capacity should be easy for 4 houses, so $136k net revenue monthly. And that is the start of a scalable business. Thus, we need 16 house orders for the first year to break even at the $50k net/house figure and 480 hours/house. In an absolute shit scenario, we take 2x the time to finish the houses, so we produuce 2 houses instead of 4, and net revenue is $36k per month. That is still acceptable, but leaves little room for growth.
  • Revenue per successful builder on their own is: assume 480 hours - 60 days or 3 months. 4 houses per year = $200k net, and $150k net after pay per worker. This is Silicon Valley level growth potential. If we take 4 houses per month * 12 = 48 houses = $2.5M, the pay from this is $600k for 12 people, or $1.9M net. Yes, revenue per worker checks out.
  • The first limiting factor in importance is number of house orders. Second limiting factor is making an attractive package for recruiting builders, having good starting pay. Third limiting factor is time per house build. In a bad house build time scenario, we still meet payroll easily, and annual net revenue per worker is $36k instead of $136k, so the margin for error is wide. This seems to be a robust enterprise.

Program Integration

  • Can this be a super-effective, field training? Yes if we work synergistically, and provide visible benefit from machine builds, ability to fix things in the field, and other services that combine equipment with house-building.
  • For the Design/Machines track - there is a work trailer, a skid steer trailer, and a portable office trailer.
  • A portable small scale vermiposting unit handles water needs, including super water saving showerhead for showers - for a complete self-contained field office. Vermiportopotties become a new innovation. $200-400 savings per job. Macerating pump, water supply, water reclamation. This is part of the aquaponic greenhouse training.