OSE COVID Strategy: Difference between revisions
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=Scenario= | =Scenario= | ||
The potential attendance at the Summer X 2021 is 200 people every month - in close quarters - working closely together - for 3 months. Strategy must pass general scientific consensus, as well as approval internally on our team, to keep everyone safe. According to known statistics - if we have a total of 600 people - with the assumption that complete population infection occurs as long as 1 person carries the disease - there is 0.02 risk of a person dying (ages 20-49, 200 micromorts) and if we assume that up to 10% are 50-69, which is a an upper limit, then the chance of dying for the older people is 0.3. This is over 3 months. | The potential attendance at the Summer X 2021 is 200 people every month - in close quarters - working closely together - for 3 months. Strategy must pass general scientific consensus, as well as approval internally on our team, to keep everyone safe. According to known statistics - if we have a total of 600 people - with the assumption that complete population infection occurs as long as 1 person carries the disease - there is 0.02 risk of a person dying (ages 20-49, 200 micromorts) and if we assume that up to 10% are 50-69, which is a an upper limit, then the chance of dying for the older people is 0.3. This is over 3 months. | ||
=Summer X= | |||
Current vaccinations are 14% and 1.5M/day in the USA. 328M USA population means 219 days, and the progam has started Feb. Thus, about 180 days before everyone is vaccinated from now. This takes us from March 1 until Sep 1 for 100% vaccination in the USA. | |||
Revision as of 13:04, 27 February 2021
Scenario
The potential attendance at the Summer X 2021 is 200 people every month - in close quarters - working closely together - for 3 months. Strategy must pass general scientific consensus, as well as approval internally on our team, to keep everyone safe. According to known statistics - if we have a total of 600 people - with the assumption that complete population infection occurs as long as 1 person carries the disease - there is 0.02 risk of a person dying (ages 20-49, 200 micromorts) and if we assume that up to 10% are 50-69, which is a an upper limit, then the chance of dying for the older people is 0.3. This is over 3 months.
Summer X
Current vaccinations are 14% and 1.5M/day in the USA. 328M USA population means 219 days, and the progam has started Feb. Thus, about 180 days before everyone is vaccinated from now. This takes us from March 1 until Sep 1 for 100% vaccination in the USA.