OSE COVID Strategy
The potential attendance at the Summer X 2021 is 200 people every month - in close quarters - working closely together - for 3 months. Strategy must pass general scientific consensus, as well as approval internally on our team, to keep everyone safe. According to known statistics - if we have a total of 600 people - with the assumption that complete population infection occurs as long as 1 person carries the disease - there is 0.02 risk of a person dying (ages 20-49, 200 micromorts) and if we assume that up to 10% are 50-69, which is a an upper limit, then the chance of dying for the older people is 0.3. This is over 3 months.
Current vaccinations are 14% and 1.5M/day in the USA. 328M USA population means 219 days, and the progam has started Feb. Thus, about 180 days before everyone is vaccinated from now. This takes us from March 1 until Sep 1 for 100% vaccination in the USA. Perfect timing for the Sep 1, 2021 OSE Summer of Extreme Design-Build.
The effect is - the 0.3 risk in older populations is eliminated becuase those vaccines are administered first, and administration is done by May or June, see COVID_Vaccine.
This leaves the 0.02 risk of infection - assuming nobody is vacccinated in the 20-49 age group. Since most people will be, and 80% of the population is required for immunity - the chances of mortality during Summer X drop to negligible.
At the same time, we leave several measures that we will retain for Summer X:
- Build outdoor, covered dining facilities and bathroom facilties.
- Encourage tenting for social distancing, as some people like to tent anyway.
- Require masks indoors including residential and workshop facilities.
- The testing requirements prior to incoming international flights + quarantine still applies at the federal level
- Vaccination is suggested for participation in Summer X - which is about transmitting the disease to others as well as for keeping one safe.