COVID Peak: Difference between revisions

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=Basics=
#REDIRECT [[Predicted Peak of the First Outbreak of COVID-19]]
*This page goes over the projected "peak" of the first [[COVID-19]] outbreak
*It has not yet happened so check facts/statistics/projections regularly
 
=Timelines=
*https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3
*https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
 
=Model Curves=
*This is fascinating - extreme lockdown results in severe cases popping up. The second half of graph shows the results when the lockdown is lifted by September (after 5 months): hell will break loose again. This graph shows a warning on the 12+ month duration that is required until a vaccine is developed.
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/coronavirus-projections-us/
 
[[File:cases.jpeg|500px]]
 
 
=Explanation of the Above and Summary=
*See report - [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf]
*Peak deaths occur about 1 month after peak cases. Peak cases for the USA are slated for May 20 (2 months), and peak deaths for June 20.
*Some later states in US have peak cases around June 20 - 1 month later than earlier states.
 
=As of March 22, 2020=
 
*UK - Happening in 3 months - [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-peak-uk-when-what-next-how-prepare/]
*Italy - March 23-25 - [https://www.thelocal.it/20200318/when-will-the-coronavirus-epidemic-in-italy-peak]
*China - Peak March 13 after discovery in December. [http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/13/c_138871417.htm]
*New York - 45 days from now - [https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/coronavirus-projections-us/]
 
=See Also=
*[[COVID-19]]
*[[Pandemic Control Measures]]
 
=Useful Links=
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology The Wikipedia Page on Epidemiology]

Latest revision as of 13:51, 23 March 2020

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