Predicted Peak of the First Outbreak of COVID-19
Contents
Basics
- This page goes over the projected "peak" of the first COVID-19 outbreak
- It has not yet happened so check facts/statistics/projections regularly
Timelines
- https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3
- https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Model Curves
- This is fascinating - extreme lockdown results in severe cases popping up. The second half of graph shows the results when the lockdown is lifted by September (after 5 months): hell will break loose again. This graph shows a warning on the 12+ month duration that is required until a vaccine is developed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/coronavirus-projections-us/
Explanation of the Above and Summary
- See report - [1]
- Peak deaths occur about 1 month after peak cases. Peak cases for the USA are slated for May 20 (2 months), and peak deaths for June 20.
- Some later states in US have peak cases around June 20 - 1 month later than earlier states.
As of March 22, 2020
- UK - Happening in 3 months - [2]
- Italy - March 23-25 - [3]
- China - Peak March 13 after discovery in December. [4]
- New York - 45 days from now - [5]
