Earth Area Required for a Solar Economy: Difference between revisions
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*'''OSE proposal - entrepreneurs get involved in PV module production en masse.''' | *'''OSE proposal - entrepreneurs get involved in PV module production en masse.''' | ||
*Startup cost of PV manufacturing facility - couple million. See [https://www.academia.edu/8045076/How_to_setup_5MW_and_10MW_Solar_PV_Module_Manufacturing_Unit_-_Complete_Business_Model] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [https://ooitech.solar/Solar-Panel-Module-Production-Line/-r-19.html]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W*(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-manufacturing-cost.html]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost. | *Startup cost of PV manufacturing facility - couple million. See [https://www.academia.edu/8045076/How_to_setup_5MW_and_10MW_Solar_PV_Module_Manufacturing_Unit_-_Complete_Business_Model] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [https://ooitech.solar/Solar-Panel-Module-Production-Line/-r-19.html]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W*(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-manufacturing-cost.html]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost. | ||
*Cost breakdown - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53938.pdf] | *Cost breakdown - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53938.pdf]. But, this is 2011 - so it's about 2 generations ago in PV time. | ||
Revision as of 01:18, 18 February 2022
- http://landartgenerator.org/pdf/PosterSolar.pdf
- Cost would be $3-5 trillion, or a fraction of global GDP. [1]
- Then to summarize, WTF is this not happening by next year?
- Only 150 GW of panels are produced per year [2]
- Average consumption is 350W per person for 8 billion people. [3]. This means 3 TW needed. But need to multiply by 4 as sun shines 6 hours on average on any place, World. So say it's about 10TW need.
- This means one decade gets us 1.5TW - need a few decades. But this is accelerating.
- OSE proposal - entrepreneurs get involved in PV module production en masse.
- Startup cost of PV manufacturing facility - couple million. See [4] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [5]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W*(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [6]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost.
- Cost breakdown - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [7]. But, this is 2011 - so it's about 2 generations ago in PV time.