Earth Area Required for a Solar Economy: Difference between revisions
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*Startup plant for PV manufacturing - See [https://www.academia.edu/8045076/How_to_setup_5MW_and_10MW_Solar_PV_Module_Manufacturing_Unit_-_Complete_Business_Model] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [https://ooitech.solar/Solar-Panel-Module-Production-Line/-r-19.html]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W*(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-manufacturing-cost.html]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost. | *Startup plant for PV manufacturing - See [https://www.academia.edu/8045076/How_to_setup_5MW_and_10MW_Solar_PV_Module_Manufacturing_Unit_-_Complete_Business_Model] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [https://ooitech.solar/Solar-Panel-Module-Production-Line/-r-19.html]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W*(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [https://www.nrel.gov/solar/market-research-analysis/solar-manufacturing-cost.html]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost. | ||
*Cost breakdown - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53938.pdf]. But, this is 2011 - so it's about 2 generations ago in PV time. | *Cost breakdown - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53938.pdf]. But, this is 2011 - so it's about 2 generations ago in PV time. | ||
*Therefore, if we have a bunch of vertically integrated, open source startup entrepreneurs - how much capital would be needed? | *Therefore, if we have a bunch of vertically integrated, open source startup entrepreneurs - how much capital would be needed? At a dollar a watt, it's $3T for the transition. Note that the simple calculation of $1/W of PV panels agrees with the Borntoengineer,com article above - which mentions 3-5 tees for the transition.. | ||
Revision as of 01:27, 18 February 2022
- http://landartgenerator.org/pdf/PosterSolar.pdf
- Cost would be $3-5 trillion, or a fraction of global GDP. [1]
- Then to summarize, WTF is this not happening by next year?
- Only 150 GW of panels are produced per year [2]
- Average consumption is 350W per person for 8 billion people. [3]. This means 3 TW needed. But need to multiply by 4 as sun shines 6 hours on average on any place, World. So say it's about 10TW need for installed PV.
- This means one decade gets us 1.5TW - need a few decades. But this is accelerating.
- OSE proposal - entrepreneurs get involved in PV module production en masse.
- Startup cost of PV manufacturing facility - about $1/W so $5M for a 5MW/year facility. But costs underneath are already 2/3 of finished panel cost, see NREL presentation slide 45 reference below. So highest open source advantage comes from vertical integration, which can arguably perform at lower capital cost than PV panel gigafactories.
- Startup plant for PV manufacturing - See [4] - full breakdown. Initial capitalizatin appears to be spread out over an undefined period. Looks like facility would be somewhere around $2M in equipment? See example of laminator and facility. [5]. 5MW per year is typical, for about 40kW actual power use on laminator. 5MW = 250W*(20,000). 20k panels - or enough for 100 facilities of 50kW each. In this model, the cost is 43 cents per watt, sale price is 64 cents per watt. This is in 2014, so it's a generation ago. Price of solar cells has been dropping - down to around 20 cents per watt for solar cells only [6]. Note that the actual silicon material is a small fraction of the PV module cost - processing is most of the cost.
- Cost breakdown - wafer is 1/3, cell is 1/3, module is 1/3. Each has a 20% margin or such. See p 45 of [7]. But, this is 2011 - so it's about 2 generations ago in PV time.
- Therefore, if we have a bunch of vertically integrated, open source startup entrepreneurs - how much capital would be needed? At a dollar a watt, it's $3T for the transition. Note that the simple calculation of $1/W of PV panels agrees with the Borntoengineer,com article above - which mentions 3-5 tees for the transition..