Billion Per Day Operation

• Net is important - what you make is irrelevant, what you keep is relevant.
• What is the largest corporation in the world in terms of net revenue? Saudi Aramco, with $100B net. Up in top 10 are the usual suspects including Berkshire: IT, Oil, and Banks, with Amazon at 11th at $33B. [1]. Microsoft is most profitable with 36% margin, followed by Berkshire with 33%. Rest are 25% or less, Saudi Aramco at 25%.
• What is the total value of the top 100 and top 1000 corporations in the world? Top 100 - assume $1B after 50, so the top few surpass that by 100x themselves and thus after 50 it would be only a few percent, so top 100 = top 50 - about $20B net average. Thus top 100 are about $1T net revenue.
• Essentially, largest takehome is $100B. That is $250M per day. So it's only a quarter B per day, and for logistics-based operations - one third of that (Amazon) at $90M/day. Roughly speaking, we need to be at $100M/day to be the most successful hardware operation.
• How many Seed Eco-Homes value is that per day? 1000 per day at $100k 'net' where 'net' is equivalent to the standard net if OSE 'net' is Regenerative Capital.
• How many allied OSE operations does it take to do this? At the 24 person core operation, a house is built in 5 days. At the scaled 240 person village campus, 2 houses are built per day. And $73M/year in the robust version. 500 such operations are thus necessary. OSE's current big picture strategy is to robustify the Seed Eco-Home enterprise towards free land and materials, thus retaining labor as the main expense. After free materials and land, there is automation that converts labor to R&D, as heavy investment in R&D pays off with increased effectiveness. If we can increase effectiveness via R&D, then the core of OSE's work shifts from mastery of Manual Knowledge Work to a track of R&D, embodying lifelong learning.
  • For planning purposes, let's say 50 houses per year for a 24 person crew - 1000 hours is one week, with 50 weeks per year, or about 1/7 per day. There is a factor of 7000 to 1000 per day. So we need a factor of 7000 from a 24 person operation.
  • We have 10x in a 240 person operation, slated for 2025.
  • Then we need 700 of these - or 350 as Dunbar's number + Sister Cities. With one operation developed by 2025, the next class of Dunbar's Number can begin. It would require 8 years to train to responsibility, assuming the only way to succeed is to grow the talent. Too much risk in recruiting external executive power. This is also stretching the limit of Dunbar's number. So we should inject a 2x somehow to get back to Dunbar's number.
• This is all within the stretch realm of a Dunbar-number of OSE Campuses worldwide, implemented as Sister Cities - each having the equivalent of 240 effective half-time workers - work-study students. In fact, only 500 of such villages are required to change the world. This is based on $100k net per house with a cost structure of an Economy of Integration - materials value capture - $25k, labor value capture $25k, profit value capture $25k and Integrated Design value capture (CAD-BOM-Build efficiency) at $25k.
  • Stretch Dunbar Number is 500 - with 'sister cities' goes down to 250 - which is a strech but manageable Dunbar Number scale for super-relational high performers.
• Each 240 person operation is $73M net, a world class facility replicated at least 50 times, with allowance for Dunbar's number of these as a naturally manageable scale.
• 24 person operation by 2024, 240 person ops by 2025, few replications by 2026. By 2028, there may be a chance for 500 such campuses, or it could take 2 or 3 more decades to regenerate the world.