Predicted Peak of the First Outbreak of COVID-19

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Basics

  • This page goes over the projected "peak" of the first COVID-19 outbreak
  • It has not yet happened so check facts/statistics/projections regularly

Timelines

Model Curves

  • This is fascinating - extreme lockdown results in severe cases popping up. The second half of graph shows the results when the lockdown is lifted by September (after 5 months): hell will break loose again. This graph shows a warning on the 12+ month duration that is required until a vaccine is developed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/coronavirus-projections-us/

Cases.jpeg


Explanation of the Above and Summary

  • See report - [1]
  • Peak deaths occur about 1 month after peak cases. Peak cases for the USA are slated for May 20 (2 months), and peak deaths for June 20.
  • Some later states in US have peak cases around June 20 - 1 month later than earlier states.

As of March 22, 2020

  • UK - Happening in 3 months - [2]
  • Italy - March 23-25 - [3]
  • China - Peak March 13 after discovery in December. [4]
  • New York - 45 days from now - [5]

See Also

Useful Links

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