Growth Log
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- Scaling Rollout
- Growth Ecology
- Enterprise Log
- Enterprise Scaling
- Enterprise Scaling Log from Cameron Herold time
Dec 7, 2024
2
Gasoline sales are $50B/month, diesel $15B/month. $750B/yr car sales. $300B new home sales, but old homes 5x this. Or $1.2T value at $400k instead of $500k. Housing, transpo, + food are key expenses. Food is $1.5T away from home, and about $1.5T groceries. About $2.6T for all food in the USA (home and biz [1]). Cars are $5k avg for car purchases - annual! Food $6k. Utilities - $5k. Markets are $3T food, $1.2T homes, $1.5T cars + fuel, for a total of about $6T. DMS means $3T. For the hydrogen and food producing homestead, we thus have a $6T market, both home and industrial.
1
Viral scaling can occur at disciple-level scale if replication is carried out annually. However, the minimum learning time is 4 years for Learning How to Learn, Learning How to Build, and Learning How to Be a Human. This is a serious constraint, meaning that 12x happens every 4 years. However, that still is comparable to doubling: 2^8=256, while 12^2= 144 - both after 8 years. Game changes when cohort is 24, but starting with 48 due to attrition. 24 after 2 discycles (Disciple cycles) Is 576 strong, and in 12 years it is 13k - much stronger than doubling. 24x every 4 years is much stronger. 8x every 4 years is sufficient.
Core must thus be culture. Building, thinking, humanizing. Simple in concept. All 3 are required for Democratic civ, and these are mutually reinforcing, so that builders aren't coopted (reptarts), thinkers aren't coopted (best and the brightest) and than the humanizers aren't coopted (libtarts). This cures with agency the curse of non execution, cures ignorance with wisdom, and cures barbarism with humanism.
Jun 20, 2023
Billion Dollar Per Day Operation
Tue Apr 11, 2023
Sun Mar 19, 2023
Management is key to growth. Requires Design, SOPs. Design must be optimal and exceeding industry standards 10x. Operating cost - 10x lower. SOPs must be efficient, exceeding industry standards. These must be built in. Very exciting. Next steps: do 1 big house at a time. 50% efficiency gain. Then do 4 at a time. Then 8. Funding: at the 4 level bootstrap: we do a pre-sale, by understanding final cost, and by understanding loans. For a loan, requirement is: house for sale. Or no house for sale. When no house, it's a construction loan. We offer at a given price, such as $199k. Still much lower than industry standard of $350k. Maintenance cost: design it to be zero energy = $3k saved per year. $3k x100=$300k. 2x right there. 10x cheaper, better, faster, stronger. See Water Heat Storage for details.
Management structure: an operations manual for 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 24-person operations building advanced housing to Solve Housing.
12 and 24 are non-skilled audiences, who can lift a hammer and use a screw gun, or who can be trained to full competency in one hour. This is counterbalanced by self-enforcing QC using QC checklists, basic jigs, and a QC App. Once Seed Eco-Home Build Time, various instructionals, BOM, and full CAD is available, this is easy.
Wed Mar 8, 2023 - Sublimation
We call out for more than transformation: sublimation. Because 100x is easier than 10x. 10x is easier than 2x.
The current model of humans is a bell curve, with the most elite being the entrepreneurs who lead humanity into uncharted frontiers. Albeit leaving many people behind. If we assume that until general enlightenment (shifting the bell curve right to a peak where the outliers live today) most people will be employees (80%), then our duty is to hire the employees to do good world work. Which is essentially transformative at the minimum, and sublime at best.
This mean mass creation of right livelihood as conceptualized for OSE in the first decade of the 21st century. Add to that the recognition that profound grit and excellence is rare by structure in a non-Distributive Society - then the way to sublimation is through hiring.
Once people reach enlightenment, this issue solves itself. For now, we hire masses to do good, not evil.
To this we must add propaganda and disinfo. People can be programmed to whichever way. It's not that say coal or slash and burn agriculture are evil - it is more about the system of human enterprise which misses key elements of sublimation: collaborative, transparent, transformation. Raising the bar for everyone.
Thus we must recognize the violence of the Lord of the Flies, patents, greed, etc - which is in all of us. We must reprogram society through what they do most of the time. That is called their calling - mundanely speaking - their work or job. And this job must fit in the context of everything else - not 'i'm just minding my own business' - because the wold is interconnected.
This means mass creation of entrepreneurship, which by definition must be a universal constructor, construction set, civilization-in-a-box. Not for escaping, but for independence for interdependence. We must escalate independence to deescalate war. None of the tethers of dependence such as Nord Stream pipeline etc - but regions that are independent.
For the mass brainwashing, that is the first layer to work on, though. That is the tough part, because we don't notice What's Our Problem. The first new story to tell is one of abundance and possibility. For many people, that will require internal work and healing of trauma. How do you get through certain societies that have been traumatized for centuries, such as the Russians or new upstarts such as documented by Transparency International?
OSE's program:
- Open source the economy, specifically via generative kernels of production that can be replicated inexpensively anywhere in the world to provide clean economomies. We start from economic power, not idealism. We support Neo-Idealism.
- Develop core Distributive Enterprises which have at least $1T market sizes, such as housing, energy, food production. Demonstrate the distributive versions of highly vertically integrated product ecologies that succeed by virtue of collaborative design towards Distributed Market Substitution. Develop swarm-based productive mechanisms with low barriers to entry.
- Commit 50% of all revenue to product ecosystem development that includes the creation of new institution for collaborative design and transparency. Create R&D campus ecosystems that become the new economic engine of collaboration. Technology base includes aerospace and microchips.
War, poverty, and corruption come to an end as such. In the initial stages, invest in collaborative military infrastructures that guarantee peace, as the Human Rights Act is no match for a tank. At the same time, this would make other military institutions more accountable - making armies engines of production development as opposed to destruction.
Wed Mar 1, 2023
10x next year and 100x the year after. For cohesion, what are design principles mitigating defection and maximizing mission alignment? The product affordabces must be designed to be so. Price drops. But, most costs will not be build - build will effectively be free with sufficient Tech Recursion. It will be other costs such as land and legal. ADUs can take off. Associated affordabces of affordable housing will kick in - such as associated upskilling and upskilled production combined with higher level of financial freedom, and higher level of self-determination.
100x would be a 'free subversive franchise' where people invest in the production facility (Edufactory), OSE works for them supplying materials. They purchase kits at affordable cost. Their incentive is innovation and feedback to improve product. We use their money because they invest in their own productive capacity, similar to a cooperative. They do not defect, and they keep mission aligned, because OSE runs the Edufactory - meaning we create the culture and provide the skillsets, toolsets, part kits, R&D to support and enhance integrated, lifetime, modular, closed loop material cycle design. This must be designed with Distributed Market Substitution at its core. By design the enterprise resets the market for increased financial independence. OSE provides security without the authoritarianism a - via a robust product marketing and R&D ecosystem. It is not a freeloading condition - the client entrepreneurs are responsible for their own enterprises according to their ambition. Lifetime learning track breaks any glass ceiling, so they can be simple franchisees up to full movement entrepreneurs starting new Campuses or Edufactories.
Sun Feb 19, 2023
Enterprise milestone - 24 person crew, 1 week builds. Weekly payroll is $1500*24 =$36k. 960 hours per house. Weekly revenue is 2x materials (contractor profit), + 25% industry standard developer profit, + 7% construction manager cost [2]. On $60k materials sale price after contractors is $120k, and after construction manager it is $130k. With land it's $155, with utilities it's $165k, and with profit it is and after profit ($40k) it is $205k. With 36k payroll per week, there is a gain of $24k on labor value (50% markup instead of 100% markup). Net gain per house is $24k+40k = $64k. Maysville case is 60k material and $40k labor, 10k land, so cost of $110k, with sale price of $175k it is $64k net. This is great. Great scenario would be $190k, or $80k net, and possibly $200k at $90k net. With initial $36k labor in first cohorts, and $64k net per house (of $190k, $100k is labor + profit, and $90k for materials ($60k), land, and $20k overruns). This likely case means $3.1M annual net. At 300 of these operations, we are at $1B. Thus recruiting refers to high level hires. Succession plan: first OM hired at 10 builds per year, and COO at first 50 builds per year. Succession plan for the $1B level is likely to be The Book with the sublimation model lined up (fix your own shit, learn Art of Possibility and Art of Sublimation, and fix world problems by hiring normal people to do good work). At the $3M operation, OM runs the show fully, while the executive spends full time on guiding the direction (book and cultural creation) which is a prerequisite to creating a Weakly State-Like Entity, a Network State, or an Open Source Village.
Thu Feb 14, 2023
Platform. Platform defined on all best efforts, addressing shortcomings of each, primarily by comparison. Fab Lab, FabCity, OS Ecosystems grant, University, Ecovillage, Oggun, FarmOS, Riversimple, wikiHow, Wikipedia, GitHub, Linux, Appropedia, Network State, Futurism, Mao 5 Year Plan, Marx&Engels, Smith, Leviathan, Upverter, 100k Garages, Lulzbot, Open Silicon, SyFive, MicroFab. Precious Plastic and One Army. FreeCAD, Blender. ROS and Ardupilot. OpenROV, Open motors, Open Source Vehicle. Hobby vs Industrial grade. Production vs 1-off. Box Beam Sourcebook, Whole Earth Catalog, Doherty permaculture, WikiHouse, Vivihouse, etc. PV. What is the PV industryissing? The Euro Grid build system. OSE Germany. Curate this, don't include all. The solution is a configurable wiki, repos (gitlab/hub). New Work, Transition Towns. Solution: vision (Transformation and [[Sublimation, and Financial Independence as the new New Work. and and some of its big picture paradigm shift details. wiki, design language, social contract, execution plan. The bottom line: it is what you do for a living. None of this 'transition bullshit - change now!
Wed Feb 8, 2023
For movement entrepreneurs, we need an Economics Primer describing
- A business must make more money than it spends, as a natural law, and how most businesses don't understand this
- How is profit defined and distinction between solo operator, one who has employees, one who has an organization, and one which goes to DMS.
- Etc. Basics stating that enterprise is potential change, as long as the rules of enterprise are fair. Fair leverage. Fair debt. Fair law and regulatory capture. Oversight. Benefit vs profit. Good vs evil.
- Applications to doing a land development with a broker who doesn't understand distributed economics - the replacement of centralist principles with those of societal transformation.