OSE Rollout Plan 2011

2011

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See updated rollout plan at http://blog.opensourceecology.org/?p=4007 - 2/11/12

Global Village Construction Set Rollout Plan for 2011-2012

by Marcin Jakubowski, Ph.D., 8.29.11

opensourceecology.org, opensourceecology@gmail.com

Abstract: We are building the Global Village Construction Set (GVCS) – a low-cost, high-performance, open source, DIY platform that allows for the easy fabrication of the 50 industrial machines that it takes to build a small civilization with modern comforts. OSE is currently building infrastructure for a Flexible and Digital Fabrication Training Facility (think of Open Source version of TechShop) at Factor e Farm, our experimental laboratory. Our goal is distributive economics – developing tools for open source, productive enterprises with a focus on training producers. We are interested in developing a new economic engine - the community-based solution of re-localized production. By this year's end, we will deliver the OSE Christmas Gift to the World: (1), Product Releases of Tractor, Compressed Earth Brick press, Soil Pulverizer, and Hydraulic Power Unit after completing 3 prototypes for all these machines; (2), thorough documentation of these 4 tools to make replication a straightforward reality; and (3), extensive field testing of this equipment to demonstrate efficient, high-performance construction techniques with these tools within the context of building our training facility infrastructure. Our core mission is developing the full GVCS enterprise platform by year-end 2012, as a foundation for demonstrating that complete economies may be built from local resources by using open source tools of productivity.

Introduction: Economic Significance

We have shown initial prototypes of the low-cost, open source infrastructure building tools – the Global Village Construction Set (GVCS). Up to the present, we have shown economic significance of these tools by netting $25k from our May-August production run of these tools. We are showing progress in securing funding, primarily via the nonprofit sector. With our present growth trend, we are aiming for the impossible – of finishing and optimizing the initial 50 GVCS tools by year-end 2012. Many of the tools are basic mechanical devices (bulldozer, biomass fuel pelletizer, hammermill, etc.) - but there are much more complex ones - such as production of bioplastic glazing from plants or extraction of aluminum from clay. We need help to secure the $5M required to do this by year-end 2012, while delivering clear and clean instructionals for scaling and replication – and developing the missing open source CAD/CAM solution to assist in the digital fabrication of the above. We are calling for the development of open source microfactories that can be deployed inexpensively anywhere in the world that sunlight, plants, and soil are found – based on high-performance, optimized tools that undergo constant improvement.

A 'civilization starter kit' as such is a scalable and adaptable solution to reinventing community-based solutions of re-localized production. We are creating foundations for the open source economy.

The applications in the developing world are clear – leapfrogging and unleashing massive amounts of human potential. For the West, we aim to demonstrate - first - a new engine of optimized production (elimination of: competitive waste, design-for-obsolescence, artificial scarcity) to bring family businesses back to America (or anywhere else) – via flexible, distributed, digital fabrication – fueled by open source design. Second, this engine can also power the creation of sustainable communities with economies that are resilient in the case of global economic crisis.

A Personal Message from the Founder: Lifetime Performance, Documentation, Scaling

We have demonstrated that it is possible to produce heavy, modular-design (such as interchangeability of power units) equipment at 5-10 times reduced cost. We have also shown economic significance – via netting $25k in our recent production run over the last 4 months. Our present milestone is demonstrating the robustness of our equipment (performance) by taking it through both (1), a rigorous field test in actual construction, and (2), running 24/7 dedicated testing for machine wear.

We need to point out our success and limits. With our limited, crowd-sourced budget of $1.5/month over the last 4 years – we could only do so much. We have not been able to take the equipment (tractor and CEB press package) through a complete cycle that includes high-performance building. We are doing this now, as our funding levels are increasing.

Regarding replication, we are currently training a fabricator to start producing CEB presses.

Nobody has replicated our equipment yet (outside of the CEB controller via an independent effort)- as we are releasing full CAD and fabrication documentation of 4 product releases by Dec. 24, 2011 (our Christmas gift to the world). We have discovered that proper documentation is a huge task. At the same time, one group is beginning to build the CEB press independently of Factor e Farm, even in absence of complete documentation.

Last year, our budget was $1.5k month. We have now reached $10k/month – about $4k from True Fans, and about $6k from production earnings - with which we are scaling our facility infrastructure, in order to provide a comfortable working environment for a solid, on-site development team of 8, which can also scaleby on-demand, superinsulated housing construction at $2/sq ft. using our open source equipment.

Our growth trends indicate $20k/month within a month (pending a recent construction grant), and $100k/month within 6 months, and about $300k/month prior to phase completion by Jan 1, 2013.

As founder, I must comment on the general support level – and the difficulty of convincing supporters. Most people see crappy, simplistic design. Most people do not see that we are pursuing an iterative development process – guaranteed to produce results superior to industry standards. Open source development has been shown to produce superior results simply after enough people join the development - after a well-organized development effort continues to survive. We are operating under the assumption that our tractors, CEB presses, and other tools – will be the most replicated machines in the world – simply because we are committed to constant development – and the breakthrough cost/performance ratios that have already been demonstrated are an excellent start.

Our program is threefold: prototyping-documenation-optimization for distributive entrepreurship training. We have reached the protyping stage of only a few products, and 4 will be fully documented by Dec. 24, 2011. Optimization and entrepreneur training follows.

We have a long way to go. We are claiming lifetime design – but that can be borne only out of a lifetime of use, while we are 4 year old babies as an organized effort of the GVCS. Full, rigorous testing is needed, and the documentation is coming along. We have not touched most of the other prototypes. So help us – we've shown seeds of promise.

I challenge you. The question is not whether the GVCS can be the seed of the most widely replicated, highest-performance equipment base in the world. The question is are there people willing to make it happen – by joining a rigorous development process or by funding the venture. Note that the present economy is based on inefficiency, artificial scarcity, and enforcement of mediocrity. The good ideas take time to filter through the population. It is not all that hard to create a system better than the current one. Making such change is our game, starting with basic productivity as a foundation for a new, open source economy.

Look at the tables below. They have many gaps. Help us fill them.

Plan Until Year-End 2012

The single focus is completetion of the entire GVCS 50 tools by year-end 2012, with $4-5M of funding. Over the next 4 months, we are building infrastructure on site to promote rapid development of the remaining GVCS technologies. Starting January 1, 2012 – we will be engaging full-time project management, under the assumption that funding continues to grow at its current rate. At that time, we will be managing 12 projects at a time, with one-month prototyping schedules going through 3 prototype iterations for each machine. This will be in conjunction with a CAD, design, and fabrication team on site at Factor e Farm – where we will test and dogfood our machines as well. For each machine, we will also demonstrate economic significance by engaging in production, such as we have for the tractor and CEB press with our last production run.

This takes us to the next 16 months. January 1. 2013 will mark the kickoff of the social experiment: testing whether it is possible to create a materially-prosperous community, whether right here at Factor e Farm or in the heart of Africa, on the scale of Dunbar's number in size - that enjoys 1-2 hour per day work requirements to provide a modern standard of living (including ability to trade) – via wise use of productive technology - while at the same time avoiding contribution to geopolitical compromises. We aim to generate data points on the feasibility of such communities as a foundation for a realistic option for living – in parallel to the 'mainstream' of advanced civilization. These data points will include - practical work requirements in hours; level of technology achieved; sufficiency of local resources; happiness, satisfaction, and meaning found in the population. We predict that this will be a grave but tractable challenge, leading to a realistic lifestyle option based on nonviolence and meaning.

The basic social contract for the proposed community at Factor e Farm is a Post-Scarcity, Open Source Enterprise Community. Participants in our village are treated as enterprise partners who provide for village needs (modern standard of living at 2 hours per day of work), while generating sufficient surplus toward carrying out the OSE mission of open-sourcing the entire economy. Our particular social experiment has the stated goal of developing a post-scarcity economy option (ie, zero contribution to geopolitical compromise) in parallel to the mainstream system. We are interested in lowering the barriers to entry to a lifestyle option for unleashing freedom and pursuit of happiness – for anyone interested in such a lifestyle.

Rollout Plan

We are prototyping powerful productive and infrastructure tools - the GVCS. The Factor e Farm roll-out plan starts with finishing all preparation for construction by September 15, 2011, and moving into a 3 month construction period of the Workshop and Living Units, until November 15, when winter sets in. With this in place, we aim to recruit 8 full time people. We already have the project leader, precision machine designer, and 3D printer developer on site. We are looking for 4 professional fabricators, a seasoned master machinist, a farmer to test agricultural equipment, and a master builder to produce housing on demand. Read further details on the Factor e Farm development team requirement for 2012 at this link.

With 4 full-time fabricators (including a machinist) and a design team on site, we can prototype four machines per month. This brings a total prototype yield to 16 full product releases for 2012 if this program started on January, 2012 and if 3 prototypes are required for full product release.

This is a proposed breakdown of prototyping effort by source. The requirement is 134 outstanding prototypes (16 prototypes of 150 total are planned to be completed by year-end 2011 at Factor e Farm, including 4 first prototypes). Note that each of the 50 GVCS technologies goes through 3 prototype iterations, or 150 prototypes total.

PROTOTYPER	PROTOTYPING CAPACITY FOR 2012 (NUMBER OF PROTOTYPES ACHIEVABLE IN 1 YEAR)	BUDGET REQUIRED
Factor e Farm (FeF), 4 full time fabricators	48 (4 prototypes per month)	$360k
Sweiger Shop	24 (2 prototypes per month)	$360k
Enniss Inc.	24 (2 prototypes per month)	$360k
Other	38	$1.8M
TOTAL	134	~$2.9M

Table 1. Prototyping requirements and budget. This does not include testing, documentation, and distributive enterprise development.

The table indicates that there are 14 products not yet allocated to prototyping efforts. The 36 products to be covered by the first three prototypers in Table 1 are:

Prototype Burndown	Prototyper	Status	Cost Outsanding
Tractor, CEB Press, Rototiller and Soil Pulverizer, Power Cube, 3D Printer, CNC Circuit Mill	FeF + Detroit Fab Lab	Full product release planned by December 24, 2011. CNC Circuit Mill and 3D Printer required for bootstrapping CEB controller. Detroit Fab Lab can provide assistance on CNC Circuit Mill.	$6k
Dimensional Sawmill	Sweiger	Full product release by December 24, 2011, first prototype by September 31. Currently in prototype build phase.	$29k
CNC Torch/Router Table	FeF	Prototype 1 completed, May 2011. Detroit Fab Lab expressed interest in development.	$30k
Ironworker Machine	FeF + Enniss	Prototype 1 by FeF; Enniss for continuation, full independent 3-station shear/punch/nibbler/angle shear. Enniss has built multihole production ironworkers.	$45k
Industrial Robot	FeF	Yoonseo Kang, future Dedicated Project Visit (DPV)	$22k
CNC Precision Multimachine	FeF	Jershonda Baker – DPV started August, 2011; total CNC integration with tool change capacity with mill/drill/lathe/surface grinder/centerless grinder/nut & bolt machine/bandsaw/ cold cut saw	$50k
MicroTrac		Small-scale version of Tractor	$45k
Universal Auger			$9k
Bulldozer		Large-scale version of Tractor with 4 Power Cubes or more	$105k
Chipper/Hammermill			$15k
Backhoe		$15k	$45k
Cement Mixer	Sweiger		$9k
Baler			$45k
Hay Cutter			$15k
Hay Rake			$30k
Microcombine	Sweiger		$90k
Dairy Milker			$30k
Pelletizer	Sweiger		$9k
Spader			$45k
Trencher			$15k
Universal Seeder			$30k
Well-Drilling Rig	Enniss	Significant experience with well drilling equipment and practice.	$45k
TOTAL			$764k

The more diffidcult ones include:

Prototype Burndown	Prototyper	Status	Cost Outstanding
Induction Furnace			$150k
Metal Rolling			$150k
Rod and Wire Mill			$150k
Modern Steam Engine	Karl Petersen	Karl Petersen has been identified as a subject matter expert.	$90k
Steam Generator			$45k
Solar Concentrator	Tiny Tech India	Build on work of Solar Fire and Tiny Tech India	$30k
50 kW Wind Turbine		Onawi claims to be a relevant-scale open source wind turbine project.	$150k
Universal Power Supply			$150k
Universal Welder			$45
Plasma Cutter			$45
Electric Motor/Generator			$45k
Laser Cutter		Build on work of Lasersaur	$45k
3D Scanner			$45k
Gasifier Burner			$45k
Aluminum extractor from clay		Edward McCullough is a subject matter expert.	$150k
Bakery Oven			$45k
Dairy Milker			$45k
Bioplastic Extruder			$45k
Hydraulic Motors			$45k
Nickel-Iron Batteries			$90k
Open Source Automobile			$90k
Open Source Truck			$90k
Press Forge			$45k
TOTAL			~$1.8M

The current funding predictions for the Open Source Ecology experiment headquartered at Factor e Farm are:

SOURCE	AMOUNT	TIMING AND COMMENTS
True Fans and crowd donations	$4k/month	Ongoing funding from the crowds. Campaign for recruiting True Fans has been started.
Construction Grant	$60k	Wire has been apparently made as of 8.25.11, waiting for transfer into OSE account. Dedicated to construction materials for 5000 sq ft fabrication facility and 8 living units for on-site developers.
Kauffman Proposal	$148k	September 15, 2012; aimed at prototyping 8 machines directly relevant to 2011 construction of infrastructure, including Digital Fabrication Enterprise Training Facility
Shuttleworth Foundation	$250k	March, 2012 – this is a Fellowship where Shuttleworth Foundation invited Marcin to apply
Resource Development, USA	$500k	June 1, 2012
Resource Development, OSE Europe	$500k	June 1, 2012
Production earnings	$10k/month	Ongoing beginning January, 2012
TOTAL	$2.5M	Leaves about $2M outstanding

The next sections discusses the Kauffman Foundation grant.

Kauffman Foundation Grant

The proposed allocation of the Kauffman Foundation grant is as follows within 6 months of receipt of funding.

ITEM	COST
CNC Torch table, Prototype 2 & 3 to Product Release – featuring open source stepper motor controllers	$15k
CNC Multimachine – Prototype 1 that includes surface grinder, mill, drill, lathe, cold-cut saw, ball-bearing grinder, and nut-and-bolt machine.	$26k
CNC Circuit Mill, 3 prototypes to Product Release, based on SnapLock design	$3k
Ironworker Machine with metal shear element, Prototype 2	$7k
Dimensional Sawmill, 3 prototypes up to Product Release, 5000 board-feet/person/day	$29k
Tractor Loader-Mounted Cement Mixer, 2 prototypes to Product Release	$6k
Trencher, 3 foot depth, 2 prototypes to full product release	$6k
Universal Rotor, including fabrication technique for earth augers, Prototype 2	$5k
Technical documentation: instructional videos, fabrication procedures, etc. - 2-3 full time, on-site people at Factor e Farm, 6 month duration at $8k/month	$48k
TOTAL	$145k

1. Significance

The tools above are a continuation of GVCS prototyping – open source solutions contributed to the world. We are addressing two areas. First are construction needs (brick production, lumber milling, and cement mixing, plus others). This, combines with our tractor infrastructure, allowing one to bootstrap infrastructure building at $5/sq ft construction cost for shell structures – while remaining within industry-standard construction schedules. Second, we are providing powerful fabrication tools: CNC torch table for automation of parts cutting; CNC Multimachine for producing otherwise expensive components such as hydraulic motors for the tractor and even bolts and ball-bearings; circuit mill for producing circuits, such as microcontrollers. We are also including the ironworker machine for cutting and punching 1” thick steel. These tools can also make replicas of themselves with the hands of a skilled operator.

For the purposes of enterprise creation – we expect the following materials costs for building the machines above, as compared to industry standard costs for purchasing equivalent machines off-the-shelf.

ITEM	MATERIALS COST	OFF-SHELF COST
CNC Torch Table	$2.5k	$40k
CNC Multimachine	$5k	$45k
CNC Circuit Mill	$600	$4k
Ironworker Machine	$2k	$21k
Dimensional Sawmill	$3k	$35k
Cement Mixer	$700	$6.7k
Trencher	$700	$5k
Universal Rotor	$700	$5k
TOTAL	$15k	$162k

The difference between materials cost and off-shelf cost represents the potential value captured by local enterprises. For the purpose of community infrastructures, this represents significant generation of wealth on the local level.

Outcomes

We will produce the 8 physical machines above (some have multiple prototypes). For each machine, we will also include the following: (1), design rationale; (2), 3D CAD files; (3), 2D fabrication drawings; (4), CAE analyses; (5), CAM files for the circuit mill, torch table, and CNC Multimachine; (6), exploded part diagrams; (7), Bills of Materials and sourcing information; (8), scaling calculations; (9), A-Z instructionals; and (10), cost and performance comparisons to industry standards. In general, we are predicting 8x cost reduction compared to industry standards, reducing the barriers to entry of enterprise startups.

Deployment Strategy

We will go through design review with the local fabrication shop to produce the (1), sawmill, (2), cement mixer, (3) trencher; (4), universal auger; and (5), ironworker machine. The local fabrication shop is well-suited for building these prototypes, as we have been working with them for the last 4 years.

For the CNC Multimachine, we have recruited an on-site machinist/machine designer. For the CNC torch table, we will build on our first successful prototype and leverage the existing hackerspace community for a torch table hackathon. For CNC circuit mill, we will build on the open source work of MIT – SnapLock - to optimize the circuit mill toolchain for effective circuit production of surface mount circuits.

We will test the construction/utility devices rigorously in field conditions in our 2011 construction at Factor e Farm - where we will build the 5000 Square Foot Fabrication Training Facility and 6 living units for trainees.

The documentation aspect is a significant portion of the work. The documentation team will be involved deeply in the development process. This team will live on-site, documenting the process and results. The skills required include video editing, technical writing, and an ability to edit on daily publishing schedules. This will take us closer to defining a replicable template for professional documentation standards of the entire GVCS.

Overall Budget for OSE Until 2013

The mainstay of our funding to date has been the True Fans – micro-funding, private donations from individuals at $10/month to the project. We currently have about 400 True Fans, for a monthly donation budget of $4k. We spend all of this directly on prototyping at Factor e Farm as soon as the money comes in with 100% volunteers at present, with low overhead at an off-grid facility where we dogfood the technology.

We are currently organized as an unincorporated project under the fiscal sponsorship of Terra Foundation of California – a public charity that handles any nonprofit donations. We have done no resource development, but have gotten one $60k donation offer for infrastructure building from an anonymous donor. Moreover, we just shot footage for a Kickstarter to go the 'last mile' with the OSE Christmas Gift to the World mentioned above. The Kickstarter goal will be $40k, and we aim to kick off this campaign in 2 weeks. Also, I will be applying for $250k project funding from the Shuttleworth Foundation for a Fellowship that starts in March, 2012.

Our overall budget goal is $4-5M to complete the GVCS bear-end 2012, so that the entire platform can be completed and put to the test in terms of creating community-based solutions of re-localized production consistent with our principles of distributive enterprise. Approximately 1/3 of this budget is for prototyping, 1/3 for documentation, and 1/3 for distributive enterprise development. Distributive enterprise development involves the combination of fabrication optimization, business plan development, and fabricator training development.

Our experiment aims to demonstrate the feasibility of creating complete, technologically-advanced economies from 100% local resources (trade is optional). We aim to obtain data points on the limits of what individual communities can do to transcend artificial scarcity. We will carry out this social experiment at Factor e Farm – a community of 200 people - between 2013-2014 - one hour away from Kansas City.